In the run up to the 2015 elections, one topical issue that has overwhelmed the political landscape is the eligibility or otherwise of President Goodluck Jonathan to contest the Presidential elections. SHOULD PRESIDENT JONATHAN CONTEST THE 2015 ELECTIONS? Based on the performance of President Jonathan in office in the last 3 years, the provisions of the 1999 constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria and the political mood of the nation, the answer proffered by majority of Nigerians to this question is a flat NO. There is a groundswell of opinion amongst all Nigerians that president Jonathan IS NOT eligible or qualified to contest the 2015 elections. Majority of Nigerians feel that President Jonathan has performed dismally and far below the expectations of Nigerians so much so that he shouldn’t even be in the shortlist of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to contest the 2015 presidential elections. There is also the legal angle where experts believe that President Jonathan has been sworn in on 2 occasions as president and therefore cannot be sworn in for a third term based on the provisions of section 137 (1) (b) of the 1999 constitution. Moreover, the political mood of the nation is for GENUINE CHANGE IN NIGERIA and President Jonathan has in the last 3 years demonstrated beyond any iota of doubt that he CANNOT change Nigeria. He actually even admitted that he cannot change Nigeria. The newly registered opposition All Progressive Congress (APC) looks set to take over power at the centre if it presents Gen Muhammadu Buhari as its presidential candidate in 2015.
Already fingers are pointing towards a Kwankwaso-Amaechi ticket OR a Babangida Aliyu- Uduaghan ticket etc, to fly the PDP flag in the 2015 Presidential elections. It is clear that president Jonathan has no agenda to transform Nigeria. By and large, the view amongst majority of Nigerians is that the PDP stands to lose the 2015 presidential elections if it fields President Jonathan as its presidential candidate. With all due respect to the office of the President and with no intent to denigrate the person of Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan, it is fair to say that President Jonathan simply lacks the ideas, he lacks the energy, lacks the judgment, the temperament, the charisma, the exposure, flair, swagger, personality, looks and posture of a President. President Jonathan simply lacks the passion, vision, commitment and courage to transform Nigeria. This is why several analysts and commentators refer to him as the MUMUIST miniature President in the history of Nigeria. As I write this article, our universities are in total shut down as the academic staff union of universities (ASUU) is on an indefinite and comprehensive strike as a result of the failed policies of President Jonathan.
The President has been soundly accused of gross incompetence, failed promises and
policy summersault. Majority of Nigerians believe that
there is so much mediocrity and in most cases inertia in the running of government
business that one is tempted to wonder if President Jonathan is actually interested in
being Nigeria’s President. In his inaugural speech on 29th May 2011, President Jonathan
made several promises which have not been met. In fact records show that there is no
commitment on the part of the President to meet these promises. For example, in item 23
of his Inauguration speech, the President promised to apply an ‘economic strategy’ that
will support the real sector of the economy so that small and medium enterprises (SME’s)
will grow to create jobs. However, after more than 2 years of this promise, Mr president
seems to either have lost track of that promise or his pledged ‘economic policies’ didn’t
work or both. This is because today, the real sector of the economy is literally dead. More
small businesses have closed down in the last 3 years than at any time in our history. In
item 30 of his speech, the President promised to fight corruption but has misused
his office to pardon a convicted thief and his former boss, DSP Alamieyesegha. Before
Jonathan became President, oil theft was in the region of 100,000 bpd but today under the
watch of President Jonathan, oil theft is hovering around 400,000 to 500,000 bpd.
The President is also seeking a third term through the back door if he decides to contest
in 2015.
President Jonathan is not eligible to contest the 2015 elections having taking the oath of
office as President on two occasions. Section 135 (2) of the 1999 constitution states that
‘Subject to the provisions of subsection (1) of this section, the President shall vacate his
office at the expiration of a period of 4 years commencing from the date when in the case
of a person first elected as president under this constitution he took the oath of allegiance
and the oath of office: and in any other case, the person last elected to that office under
this constitution took the oath of allegiance and oath of office or would, but for his death
have taken such oaths.
In the same vein, section 137(1) (b) of the 1999 constitution explicitly states that a person
shall not be qualified for election to the office of president if he has been elected to such
office at any 2 previous elections.
Although an Abuja high court presided over by Justice Mudashiu Oniyangi had ruled that
President Jonathan can contest in 2015, there are still unanswered questions regarding the
Ruling. For example, the Jury was not clear on the link
between the oath taking by late President YarAdua in 2007 and the oath taking by
Jonathan in 2010. If President Jonathan took office to complete the term of YarAdua,
then impliedly his oath is tied to the first term of late YarAdua and as such it can
legally be argued that President Jonathan had served a first term in 2010 and indeed is
now effectively in his second term.
The President has also performed dismally in the area of provision of security which is the first, most important and critical function of any responsible government. Section 14 (2) (b) of the 1999 constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria states that the security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government. There is well documented evidence that the state of insecurity that overwhelmed Nigeria in the last 3 years under President Jonathan is worse than the civil war that the country experienced in 1966-67..
The insecurity quagmire under President Jonathan’s watch was so much that Nigerians were prompted to ask the question ‘Do we REALLY have a government in Nigeria today? President Jonathan prefers to stay in the comfort of the Presidential villa and announce to a skeptical public that ‘We are on top of the situation’ or to read out a written address on national television stating that ‘by the powers confer on me as President. May be Mr President needs to be reminded that the powers confer on him by the constitution is to reduce poverty and make life better for every Nigerian and not to send soldiers to kill and maim innocent civilians.
Based on the renewed wave of senseless killings perpetrated by Boko haram after the declaration of the state of emergency by, it is fair to say that the state of emergency declared by President Jonathan has only strengthened Boko haram. Some analysts even aver that the so-called state of emergency imposed in some Northern states was actually meant to destroy Northern Nigeria and NOT to solve any insecurity problems. If not why did President Jonathan supported dialogue and amnesty for the Niger Delta terrorists when he was vice President? Why didn’t President Jonathan support a state of emergency in the Niger Delta at the height of the killings, kidnappings, rapes and lawlessness by the Niger Delta terrorists? Why is President Jonathan wary of entering into genuine dialogue with Boko haram even when Boko haram has demonstrated interest for talks with government? How can the government set up a committee for dialogue and at the same time send soldiers to kill Boko haram that the government wants to dialogue with? Legal experts have even labeled the latest socalled state of emergency announced by President Jonathan as null and void and of no effect. This is because the national assembly should have passed its resolution to support the state of emergency BEFORE enforcement and soldiers sent to the affected states. Rather, it was the reverse case as soldiers were sent before the national assembly passed its resolution supporting the declaration. Clearly the President didn’t wait for the approval of the national assembly before implementing the state of emergency as demanded by the constitution. In effect, implementation of the state of emergency started before the act of the national assembly hence it is null and void. This is the case of the recent ruling by Justice Adamu Bello which declared as null and void the appointment of the service chiefs on the grounds that the President appointed them and they took office prior to the passing of an Act by the national assembly.
The Boko haram problem is no longer just a domestic Nigerian issue but one with the potential to overwhelm the entire Sub-Saharan region and the African continent. It even has the potentials to blossom on a Global scale if left to roll on. The international court of justice (ICC) is also urgently required to commence full investigation into the Baga and Bama massacre and other crimes against humanity that has been perpetrated by the Nigerian Military forces. There is well documented evidence of crimes against humanity perpetrated by the Jonathan administration particularly in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states as the world has seen in the evidence released recently by Amnesty International. By and large, the recent upsurge in Boko haram activities in the last few months after the declaration of a state of emergency has confirmed that even if President Jonathan declares a COUNTRY of emergency, Boko haram is not going away. What is needed is dialogue and negotiations NOT force.
Another critical area is on the rising levels of poverty in Nigeria. According to statistics released by the Nigerian bureau of statistics (NBS), poverty in Nigeria is at an alarming rate of 86%. On the global scale, Nigeria is the 5th poorest nation in the whole world. This is utterly unacceptable in the world’s 6th largest oil producer and despite the limitless agricultural potentials in Nigeria. These figures are rising by the day courtesy of the mediocre policies of the Jonathan administration which seeks to make the rich richer and the poor perpetually poorer. How could anyone comprehend the action of President Jonathan in the last 2 budgets to award N1 billion to himself as his ‘food allowance’ while the average Nigerian lives on less than a dollar per day and while Nigerian children are dying of hunger and starvation? President Jonathan has shown glaring insensitivity to the plight of the average Nigerian who faces hunger and deprivation on daily basis. Nigeria today is ranked second on the global maternal mortality index courtesy of the Jonathan administration. Women and girls continue to lose their lives at child birth simply because there are no hospitals they could go to. The few existing hospitals have no equipments to provide services to patients and the staff are either poorly trained or not trained at all. I have never heard President Jonathan even make a reference to the debilitating state of poverty in Nigeria all through the 3 years he served so far as president. May be because as he said, I DON’T GIVE A DAMN. President Jonathan is glaringly insensitive to Nigeria’s biggest problem, POVERTY
Nigeria’s infrastructure has decayed to an alarming rate under President Jonathan such that our roads, hospitals, schools, housing and such other essentials are in a despicable and deplorable state. Several thousands of lives are lost due to road accidents arising from the bad state of our roads. Our hospitals are no longer mere consulting clinics as one cannot get even a proper prescription from a government run hospital. There are simply no equipments and no qualified staff. Most of the doctors have either fled abroad for greener pastures or are into private practice. The sorry state of our health care system has promoted rising levels of infant and maternal mortality rates. What strikes my conscience more than anything is for a young girl or woman to lose her life at child birth simply because our hospitals are ill equipped to treat her to a safe delivery and she cannot attend a private hospital because she cannot afford the bill. As a result of the clear misplacement of priorities and lack of any clear cut policy to confront the challenges in the health sector, Nigeria is now ranked second in the global maternal mortality index and third in infant mortality. If the President cannot mobilize the enormous resources that Nigeria has to address the decay in the health sector, then he has no business contesting again in 2015. Our educational system is in shambles as our public schools, colleges and universities are a shadow of their glorious past. The service delivery in the universities and other tertiary institution is at all time low. Our universities are now closed, our polytechnics were under lock and key as the Academic staff union of polytechnics (ASUP) was on strike for several months and only reluctantly resumed lectures recently. Just when our universities are in crisis and the Nigerian children cannot attend universities owing to the inability of the Jonathan administration to provide funding in Nigeria’s universities, the minister of petroleum resources who is always in the news Mrs Diezani Allison-Madueke is alleged to have blown away over N2 billion to hire private jets for her round-the-world trips and holidays. It is heartwarming to note that the EFCC has already received petitions on this allegation bordering on fraud against Mrs Allison-Madueke. Nigerians cannot wait to see a full and unhindered probe of Mrs Allison-Madueke’s controversial tenure as petroleum minister. Our universities and polytechnics no longer have a calendar as a result of the seemingly unending strikes resulting from lack of an effective government in Nigeria. A bleak future is certainly starring Nigerian children in the face due to the current neglect of public education under President Jonathan. The only person who sends his/her child to a public school is he/she who cannot afford a private school. The public schools are simply dysfunctional. There are several primary/secondary schools in Nigeria where pupils sit on bare floors to take up lessons because there are no chairs to sit on or desk to write on. At secondary school level, the situation is simply worrisome because the government cannot even afford basic feeding for the pupils while our senators and representatives continue to receive a jumbo pay and maintain their record as the highest paid legislators in the whole world.
Another area that the President has demonstrated to us that he is just not the kind of President that we need is in the area of budget implementation. The House of Representatives and indeed majority of Nigerians have already found the President questionable over the glaring poor implementation of the 2012 and 2013 budgets. The non-implementation of the national budget is an impeachable offence. Moreover the budget is clearly disproportionate and lopsided with 80% allocated to recurrent expenditure and less than 20% allocated to capital expenditure. Impliedly, over 80% of our resources will go to the private pockets of our government officials and their families: the presidency, senators, governors, ministers and other politicians and public office holders. Less than 20% is allocated to the people; fight against poverty, provision of good road network, quality health care delivery system and good hospitals, good schools to provide qualitative education, agricultural sector to boost food production and exports etc. We need a President who can change this misappropriation and make the budget 80% capital and 20% recurrent. With the present budget regime of 80% recurrent and 20% capital, one wonders where the government will get the resources to deliver the dividends of democracy to Nigerians. The President scored low. The 2012 budget recorded about 25% implementation while the 2013 budget which is more than half way through, has fared even worse. If the President cannot record at least 80% budget implementation then he has no moral ground to present himself for the office of the President in 2015.
President Jonathan has created more ethnic tensions and religious divisions than any other President/Head of state in the history of Nigeria. Today the country is more divided than ever before. In the last 3 years of President Jonathan, Nigeria has systematically been Balkanized into several ethnic, regional and religious groups taking up arms against one another. Due to lack of policy direction of President Jonathan, new armed groups have emerged along regional and ethnic lines either for self defense or to have a share of the national cake or both. A case in sight is the Ombatse cult group in Nasarawa state which was born during the tenure of President Jonathan. Ethnic groups and sects are not sure of their own safety hence the vogue now is to stock up arms because nobody knows who is going to attack them or when and where the next attack is coming. Ethnic and regional groups now look at other ethnic groups with so much doubt and suspicion that nobody trusts the other person. As part of the President’s agenda to further balkanize Nigeria along ethnic, regional lines, his home state Bayelsa which is the smallest state in Nigeria in terms of population today has the highest number of appointees at the federal level. Moreover Bayelsa state which is not up to the size of one local government in Kano state today has the biggest share in terms of statutory federal allocation. Bayelsa is receiving more money from the federal government than at least 5 states in Northern Nigeria put together all in the name of derivation for oil producing states. And Northern Nigeria is where poverty is highest and where more allocation is needed. The incoming APC government must reverse this disproportionate allocation of resources to the socalled oil producing states because it is grossly lopsided and unconstitutional. Afterall, the huge allocation to the socalled oil producing states doesn’t even get to the people in those areas but ends up in the private pockets of the politicians and other community leaders. Some oil producing states are so overwhelmed by the amount of money they receive from the federal government that they do not even know what to do with it. Federal allocation to states should be based on population and not derivation. The oil doesn’t belong to the oil producing states, it belongs to the federal government of Nigeria. The Supreme Court has ruled that any oil well 200 nautical miles offshore belong to the federal government and not to the state.
Mr President, his bootlickers and hangers-on who benefit from his government might want to ask the question (as they always do when President Jonathan is criticized even constructively) ‘Did President Jonathan caused these problems OR did all these problems started during President Jonathan? Well the answer is YES because President Jonathan created some of them and indeed some of these problems started during the tenure of President Jonathan while some didn’t. However, the key question to ask by anybody who gives a damn about Nigeria is not whether or not they started or were ‘caused’ by President Jonathan but ‘What has President Jonathan done to address these problems? The answer is ‘Nothing’. For over 3 years that he has been President, President Jonathan has shown zero passion about solving Nigeria’s myriad of problems. He has been almost out of public view except for a few appearances on national television. Based on his dismal performance in office in the last 3 years as President, the provisions of the 1999 constitution which precludes him seeking a third term, the political mood of the nation for CHANGE and also from a moral point of view, President Jonathan is not eligible to contest the 2015 Presidential election. Majority of Nigerians are saying loud and clear that ‘President Jonathan should NOT contest the 2015 Presidential election. Nigerians are unanimous in wishing President Jonathan a happy retirement as he begins his relocation to his Otuoke country home.
Abubakar Alkali
