President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria’s consummate political tactician, has strengthened the All-Progressives Congress (APC) across much of the federation. The party now commands two-thirds of state assemblies and holds majorities in both houses of the National Assembly—an impressive feat despite public anger over economic his reforms. This ascendancy owes much to the Tinubu method: seducing governors and legislators from opposition ranks, often capturing whole states in the process. In Delta, Governor Sheriff Oborevwori defected with his allies, handing Tinubu both political muscle and campaign coffers. In Rivers, Nyesom Wike—kept inside the PDP to sabotage from within—delivered his state to Tinubu against all odds, earning the gilded prize of Minister of the Federal Capital Territory.
The strategy has battered the opposition. The PDP, once the continent’s self-proclaimed “largest party,” lies fractured. Its financier and perennial candidate Atiku Abubakar, has bolted to the newly invigorated African Democratic Congress (ADC), where he is joined by Peter Obi of Labor and other disenchanted grandees – David Mark, Rotimi Amaechi, Nasir El-Rufai – all circling for 2027. What began as Tinubu’s war of attrition has, ironically, produced an opposition bloc determined to resist him. Yet the greater peril comes from within. The APC, swollen by defectors, now struggles to absorb their demands for offices and spoils. While defections should, on paper, strengthen the APC, the sheer number of new arrivals – many demanding immediate access to plum jobs, contracts, and privileges, have instead fueled bitter turf wars in state chapters as old loyalists clash with new arrivals, paralyzing party structures. Some quarrels are so fierce they threaten to unravel Tinubu’s once-assured march to re-election.
This turbulence coincides with looming primaries, where regional rivalries will sharpen. Nigeria’s north-south rotation favors a southern candidate in 2027, and Tinubu—Lagos godfather and pre-eminent southerner—remains the obvious standard-bearer. The APC holds 14 of the 17 southern states. But in the north, especially the North-East and North-West, Tinubu faces formidable headwinds. Victory requires not only majorities but constitutional spread—25% of votes in two-thirds of the 36 states. Tinubu’s camp hopes to combine Buhari’s legacy vote in the north with APC gains in the plural north-central to reach this threshold. But factional warfare in seven battleground states could rupture that calculation. If the APC implodes there, the door swings open to the ADC—or another coalition able to rally around a single credible challenger.
Tinubu, long the master of political chess, now confronts his hardest game: the enemy outside weakened, but the house within divided. What once looked like a smooth road to re-election for Tinubu is now littered with potholes of political infighting. The ruling APC, long confident of cruising into the 2027 vote, is reeling from internal tremors triggered by a wave of defections from opposition parties. From the oil-rich Delta to the political cauldron of Kano, these disputes threaten to derail Tinubu’s calculations in seven must-win states that could decide his fate.
Adamawa State: Atiku’s Shadow and a Divided APC
Adamawa, with barely 2.1m voters, matters more symbolically than numerically: it is Atiku Abubakar’s home. A poor state—₦140bn from Abuja and ₦127bn in taxes last year—it is nonetheless the stage for bitter personal rivalries. The defection of Atiku Abubakar to the ADC has turned Adamawa into a frontline battleground. Atiku, now in the ADC, is estranged from Governor Ahmadu Fintiri. His ally Aisha Binani, who nearly became Nigeria’s first female governor in 2023, has also joined the ADC. Within APC ranks, fierce competition between defectors allied with Governor Ahmadu Fintiri and veterans like Aisha Binani is deepening cracks. National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu, Tinubu’s point man in the state, is struggling to enforce unity. Tinubu, eager to humiliate Atiku, has trained special attention here. Ribadu, himself a presidential hopeful for 2031, will be judged on whether Adamawa swings to Tinubu.
Bauchi State: Ambitions Collide
Governor Bala Mohammed of the PDP is working overtime to hold Bauchi, while inside the APC, rivalry between defectors and old hands is fierce. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar and Health Minister Ali Pate, both eyeing the APC ticket, are preparing for a bruising gubernatorial clash, with new entrants over federal appointments and control of local councils. The result: an APC so divided it could underperform in the North-East. Bauchi, with 2.7m voters in 2023 and climbing toward 3m, is a PDP stronghold under Governor Bala Mohammed, chair of the PDP Governors’ Forum. With a modest ₦207bn in annual revenues, it lacks Lagos-scale wealth but carries weight in the north-east. Mohammed dreams of the presidency but lacks reach; he urges his patron, former President Goodluck Jonathan, to return, with himself as running mate; a fantasy few share. Bauchi is less about numbers than symbolism in the battle for northern momentum.
Delta State: APC’s Fragile New Stronghold
Oil-rich Delta epitomizes the fluidity of Nigerian politics. A PDP bastion since 1999, it bankrolled presidential campaigns with its vast revenues – ₦485bn in federal allocation and ₦158bn in taxes last year, making it the nation’s third-wealthiest state after Lagos and Rivers. Atiku Abubakar tapped then-Governor Ifeanyi Okowa as his 2023 running mate, underscoring Delta’s heft. But once Tinubu took power, the EFCC probed Okowa’s finances, alleging $1bn unaccounted for. Under pressure, Okowa, his successor Sheriff Oborevwori, and their allies defected en masse to the APC, delivering Delta to Tinubu but sowing discord. But the influx has enraged longtime APC stalwarts such as Ovie Omo-Agege, who feel sidelined in appointments and local patronage. By convention, defecting governors become party leaders, elevating Oborevwori above entrenched APC stalwart Omo-Agege. Furious, Omo-Agege’s camp now flirts with the ADC. Parallel structures are now emerging in multiple LGAs, risking a fractured vote that could hand the ADC opposition an opening. With over 3.2m voters in 2023, likely 4m by 2027, Delta remains a volatile prize.
Kano State: Kwankwaso Looms Large
Kano is Nigeria’s electoral colossus: 5.9m voters in 2023, likely 6.5m by 2027, and unmatched turnout. Its ₦390bn revenues pale beside Lagos or Rivers, but politically, it is the north’s capital. Godfather Rabiu Kwankwaso, mentor to Governor Abba Yusuf, retains cult loyalty but refuses to commit to Tinubu or the ADC. His lieutenants, however, are defecting to the APC. Kano, Nigeria’s vote-richest state, is descending into APC infighting as defectors loyal to Rabiu Kwankwaso jockey for control. Many of his lieutenants who crossed into the APC expect immediate reward, but long-time stalwarts are resisting displacement. With Kwankwaso himself playing coy, the APC’s Kano machine is dangerously overstretched. Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin, an APC man, covets the governorship and may secure Tinubu’s blessing if Kwankwaso hesitates. Whoever commands Kano commands the north.
Lagos State: Tinubu’s Home Base on Edge
Tinubu’s fief and Nigeria’s commercial capital, Lagos boasts 7m registered voters, yet chronically low turnout. Its ₦1.62tn revenue dwarfs all others. But in 2023, Peter Obi humiliated Tinubu on his home turf. Tinubu loyalists have since tightened their grip, even stoking xenophobic campaigns against the city’s Igbo population. Still, Tinubu faces turbulence: his rift with Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu and whispers that he might anoint his son, Seyi, as successor. Even in Tinubu’s stronghold, the influx of defectors from PDP and Labor has strained internal balance. Old APC chieftains complain they are being muscled out of local council positions by “newcomers with Abuja blessings.” Talk of Tinubu preparing his son for succession has only worsened suspicion, with younger defectors now angling for the 2027 Assembly tickets as quid pro quo. Lagos will remain Tinubu’s to lose, but it is no longer invincible.
Oyo State: Battle of the Southwest Titans
Oyo, the political heart of the south-west, has four blocs: Ibadan, Oyo, Oke Ogun, and Ogbomosho. Ibadan, with numbers and history, usually claims the governorship. But other blocs now demand a turn.
Here, the competition is personal. Power Minister Bayo Adelabu, a Tinubu ally, is fighting to consolidate control against entrenched APC factions, while PDP Governor Seyi Makinde nurtures his own national ambitions. Governor Seyi Makinde, of the PDP, harbors presidential ambitions and wants to anoint a successor. Yet Tinubu’s protégé, Power Minister Bayo Adelabu, also eyes the governorship on the APC ticket—though his Ibadan roots may alienate the other blocs. With 3.2m votes at stake and ₦345bn in annual revenue, Oyo’s rivalries could tip national scales. Waves of PDP defectors to the APC are demanding inclusion, sparking fierce arguments over zoning and patronage in Ibadan and beyond. The risk: the APC could implode before ballots are cast.
Rivers State: Tinubu’s Peace Deal Under Siege
Second only to Lagos in wealth, Rivers is the crown jewel of the oil belt, pulling in ₦811bn last year. Once a PDP fortress, its politics collapsed into crisis after a bitter duel between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor, now FCT Minister Nyesom Wike. Tinubu personally brokered peace between Governor Sim Fubara and his estranged benefactor Nyesom Wike, but the truce that restored Wike as de facto leader, leaving Fubara sidelined, is unraveling. The arrival of defectors loyal to former Transport Minister Rotimi Amaechi, now repositioned in the ADC, has inflamed hostilities. The APC’s 2027 ticket is unsettled and Rivers chapter is paralyzed by endless quarrels over who controls ward and LGA structures. Amaechi, now in the ADC, is grooming rival candidates to exploit the discontent. With 3.5m registered voters—the fourth largest bloc—Rivers is a battlefield of egos.
The Bigger Picture: A House Divided
Defections were supposed to consolidate Tinubu’s power and weaken the opposition. Instead, they have created a bloated APC family squabbling over spoils of war. The Africa Democratic Congress (ADC), forged from the union of Atiku and Peter Obi’s camps, is watching closely—ready to exploit APC’s implosions. Tinubu’s challenge is stark: unless he reins in the squabbles and balances competing demands, the APC could bleed support in precisely the states he needs to clinch re-election. Nigeria’s constitution requires a president to secure not just a national majority but 25% of votes in at least two-thirds of states. Right now, Tinubu’s path to that threshold looks shakier by the day.
Bottom line: What should have been APC’s advantage—absorbing defectors—is fast becoming its Achilles’ heel. President Tinubu’s 2027 bid now hangs precariously in the balance, threatened not by external enemies but by the chaos within his own house.
