Nigeria`s ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) faces its biggest threat in 14 years, after a newly formed opposition coalition was given the green light to contest a presidential election due in 2015. On July 31st the electoral authority approved the merger of the three leading opposition parties—the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the All Nigeria People’s Party and the Congress of Progressive Change (CPC). The All Progressive Congress, as the new mega-party is known, will face a weakened PDP, which has held power since Nigeria’s return to civilian rule in 1999.
The merger is the most committed effort to date by the opposition to form a united front. In theory, power is within reach. Goodluck Jonathan, the president, has inspired little confidence since taking the reins in 2010. He has struggled to contain an Islamist insurgency in the north and oil theft is at an all-time high: $10.9 billion has been lost to oil pilfering in two years, with senior government officials rumoured to be involved. Mr Jonathan also has problems within his party, which has shown signs of stress in recent months. In-party squabbling indicates that some in the PDP do not want the president to run again in 2015.
The PDP does have money on its side, having courted the attention of Nigeria’s wealthiest businessmen. However, the opposition coalition seems to be better financed and organised than any previous challenger. It has some political heavyweights, including General Muhammadu Buhari, representing the CPC, who ran for president in 2003, 2007 and 2011 and led Nigeria under military rule between 1983 and 1985. Another supporter is Bola Tinubu, a legendary former governor of Lagos state, who represents the ACN.
Previous attempts to rally the opposition against the PDP have failed amid infighting and the competing ambitions of party leaders. The success of the new coalition will depend on its big personalities being able to put their egos aside and carefully choose a presidential candidate.
The ACN, a Yoruba-majority party with roots in the south-west, and the northern, Muslim-dominated CPC may seem like unlikely bedfellows, but they may be able to choose a candidate with broad national appeal, something which has eluded opposition parties in the past. Some believe they may put forward a northern Muslim, with a Christian running mate from the oil-producing south. That would appease northern governors who believe that Mr Jonathan broke an unwritten agreement to rotate power between the largely Muslim north and Christian south when he ran for president in 2011.
If the opposition can stand strong and rally enough support in areas where the ruling party is losing strength, tempting wavering PDP governors to jump ship, it could be a hotly contested election. There are concerns that a close race will spark violence, especially in areas where every vote counts. Election violence in 2011 saw more than 500 people killed in the north after protests broke out following Mr Jonathan’s victory.
A strong opposition is exactly what Nigeria needs to move its democracy forward. The new mega-party still needs to come up with a more persuasive message to voters: it currently offers familiar faces repeating well-worn lines about bringing corruption and insecurity to an end and creating jobs. If the coalition breaks up, Mr Jonathan may ease to victory. Nonetheless, as long as the opposition is united, the PDP will at last face a run for its money. Culled from The Economist
