Across the world, it is the practice of statesmen to address their fellow citizens by means of national broadcast, wherein they take stock and make visionary statements about the future direction of the country. Last Saturday’s Independence Day address by President Muhammed Buhari was disappointing for failing to accurately capture the state of the nation. It was obvious the President wanted to paint a bright picture over an otherwise gloomy state of affairs, and in the end, wasted a golden opportunity to honestly engage with the Nigerian people, and inspire hope in the citizenry. This need not be so. The president needs to get his act together and seriously address nagging problems facing the country, not run away from them. Or put a gloss over an appalling situation that has passed crisis point.
The President missed the opportunity to mobilize and galvanize Nigerians to a higher level of action required for the belt-tightening sacrifices that would be demanded of them to move the nation forward. Little surprise the speech was an anticlimax and the butt of jokes and cynicism by ordinary citizens. The claims of the president were so glaring that they did not reflect the prevailing conditions in the country. His diagnoses of the challenges were too simplistic and pedestrian; his proposed solutions were empty platitudes; indicative of leadership dysfunction and a pointer to the manner in which the country is run. Truly, the muddled speech underlined the profound dearth of ideas, as well as the lack of strength of character on the part of the man Nigerians elected as their President.
Buhari told Nigerians: “I know that uppermost in your minds today is the economic crisis. I know how difficult things are, and how rough business is.” He, however, added that the current recession would not last. This is laughable were it not tragic. Most economic analysts forecast that Nigeria would register negative growth in 2016, and much needs to be done to lay the foundation for economic recovery. The economy must indeed be diversified. The current fiscal federalism model where 36 states, with the exception of Lagos, depends overwhelmingly on allocation of dwindling oil revenues from the center on a monthly basis with very little efforts at internally generating revenues is unsustainable. The president should have outlined measures to adopt true fiscal federalism that devolves powers and control over resources from the center to the states and local governments.
While lower oil prices played a significant role, the current recession could have been avoided if other economic drivers had been effectively managed especially since the rebased GDP puts the oil sector at less than a tenth of GDP. Fiscal buffers were squandered. Instead of saving for the proverbial rainy day, Nigeria not only depleted the Excess Crude Account, it actually increased its domestic debt to finance conspicuous consumption. Servicing these debts now consumes a third of government revenues. As a result, Nigeria cannot still benefit from the rally in oil prices from their lows of $27 in February 2016, doubling to nearly $52 in August. The economic trajectory created by low oil prices was compounded by policy uncertainties.
The country has been denied the benefits of counter-cyclical policies needed to reflate the economy as fiscal policy tools of budget and capital spending were substantially delayed. CBN policy somersaults with its numerous directives and misguided tightening monetary policy posture would further stifle productivity, especially manufacturing. While the largely overrated economic management team was essentially in denial of the economic difficulties and the rising misery indices that Nigeria was facing, the administration’s lethargic approach to economic management as well as its underwhelming economic leadership team has exacerbated the underlying economic downturn leading to the current recession.
The President who regretted that “a new insurgency has reared up its head in the shape of blowing up of gas and oil pipelines by groups of Niger Delta militants,” said: “No group can unlawfully challenge the authority of the Federal Government and succeed,” warning that he would not allow “mindless groups to hold the country to ransom.” On his anti-corruption campaign, Buhari said the menace “must be fought with all the weapons at our disposal.” He, however, noted that his administration would “adhere strictly to the rule of law,” even as he appealed to the judiciary to join the fray.
The president’s speech sought to present a different reality from the current situation in the country. It is a well-known fact that corruption pervades every sector in Nigeria and has been the bane of national development. Indeed, corruption thrives with impunity in low and high places. The corruption fighting agencies have been reduced to the notorious routine of police stations from which they were meant to be insulated by their independent existence. Those indicted for corruption walk the streets without any qualm of conscience. Indeed, some have even been honored with presidential appointments.
The other fundamental point about the president’s broadcast is the ridiculous claim that Boko Haram was defeated since last December. Nigerians are under no illusion that the insurgency has not been defeated, and averring the contrary is self-delusional. The sporadic attacks by distraught insurgents, despite counter-insurgency operations of the military, is only one indication that this war is not about to end just yet. To the extent that the military has liberated occupied territories, and freed many abducted men, women and children; that aspect of ending the insurgency can be said to have been achieved. But to claim, as the president did, that Boko Haram was defeated last December, is a big lie that fosters apprehension in public consciousness and unduly disparages the military and dampen the morale of soldiers on the frontlines.
For the ordinary Nigerian who is being dehumanized and socially destabilized by the carnage harvested in the terrorist activities, the assurance of the president is counter-productive. The situation at hand does not call for a simplistic declaration of victory. The insurgency is an ongoing war, linked to an international coalition of pseudo-Islamic war-mongers with a brutal ideology. As a result, the fight is not the military’s alone. The president should own the war; and tone down his bellicose rhetoric, so as not to give the impression that all is well.
Notably, misrepresentation of reality in government is a routine, as spin doctors are employed to craft and turn them into political capital. But false claims, once made, translate into nothing and rob the president of the legitimacy required to steer the ship of state. It is against this backdrop that Nigerians should appreciate the president’s Independence Day address. It was an opportunity not only for self-evaluation by Mr. President, but to present anew, his future developmental roadmaps, against which he can be judged. It was high time Nigerians begin asking questions about their own affairs. An informed citizenry is an important perquisite for a healthy democratic dispensation. Such inquisitive citizens will not only compel responsible leadership by asking questions and holding their leaders accountable, it is central to the building of a truly democratic country. This is what the future of Nigeria is all about.
