Welcome to Imo State 2015 gubernatorial intrigues. The political chess game is on in Imo State. The battle of wits and resources has taken off and the political gladiators are scheming and strategizing. The stakes are high; so high and so fiercely contested. It is a three-horse race (read two) and the field is crowded with the three contenders and their supporters; some of them, great men and distinguished women; men of character and men of questionable means; charlatans and all manner of pretenders. The chessboard is no less rowdy, capricious and tempestuous.
This is a game played more by unseen hands than seen hands. It is the battle of the spirits and the willing. It is a clash of the titans pitting the incumbent governor, Rochas Okorocha of the main opposition APC; Emeka Ihedioha, Deputy House Speaker of the ruling PDP and the dark horse, Emmanuel Ihenacho of the APGA, said to be the man to beat, and probably the governor Imo State will never have. Ihedioha and Okorocha already clashed at the 2014 Yam Festival in Mbaise and traded invectives, with the Deputy Speaker telling Okorocha that he “has run out of ideas, so as a matter of expediency, it is expected that he would hand over the reins in 2015 so we can help out.” Okorocha countered that “the green cap (referring to Ihedioha’s trademark cap) will not make anybody governor of Imo State and as a matter of fact, there is nobody in the Imo State PDP who is my match in an electoral contest… Imo people have rejected PDP because PDP is worse than the Ebola virus.”
We examine the chances of each of the three candidates and their claims to Douglas House.
Emeka Ihedioha:
The Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives was declared winner of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) controversial governorship primaries in the state and is presently flying the flag of what has been touted as the strongest political platform in Nigeria since 1999. Ihedioha is one of the few third-term members of Nigeria’s Federal House of Representatives. Nobody wins three successive federal constituency elections by chance without a stroke of ingenuity or dexterity in the electioneering process.
Ihedioha comes from the very populous Mbaise axis of Owerri zone, an area known over the years as his strongest forte. Ihedioha, by either hook or crook, has not lost election in any of the three council areas that constitute the Mbaise nation. And Mbaise is known for casting the largest bulk votes for any of its choice candidates.
However, the Deputy Speaker’s biggest challenge is how to rally aggrieved aspirants of the PDP to close ranks and work together with him. The truth remains that if even 10 out of the 26 other governorship aspirants that ran for the party governorship ticket with Ihedioha remain averse to his candidature, it would be an uphill task for Ihedioha to win the governorship election no matter how much planning and resources he ploughs into the race.
Working at cross-purposes with these party chieftains, Ihedioha cannot be certain of winning election in their various communities where these aspirants are leaders in their own right. The fact remains that Ihedioha’s chances would be largely threatened if the PDP goes into the election as a house divided. Rightly or wrongly, Ihedioha is largely perceived as arrogant and corky by a sizeable chunk of the Imo electorate who have encountered him directly or indirectly. This perceived ultra-elitism is further compounded by questions of character and sincerity, relative to the funding of his campaign. On several occasions, women and youths drawn from the rural areas ended up stranded in his campaign office having been abandoned without their promised transport allowance for the day.
Of very important note also is the legal impediment to Ihedioha’s ambition. Imo PDP presently has four cases now in various courts over who won the December 8, 2014 governorship primary.
One such case at the Federal High Court Abuja was filed by Senator Ifeanyi Ararume. The second case is the one already at the Supreme Court by some delegates who participated in the governorship primary. The third case is by the former governor of the State, Chief Ikedi Ohakim; who is praying the Federal High Court to declare him the authenticate governorship candidate of the PDP because both Ararume and Ihedioha never paid their party subscriptions for years in violation of section 8 sub-sections 10 and 15 of the party’s constitution. The fourth case is equally at the Federal High Court and was instituted by one of the aspirants Hon. Chidi Ofoegbu over the omission of his name during the primary and he is therefore asking the court to cancel the entire exercise. And it is common knowledge that the issue of omission is of serious implication following the provisions of 2010 electoral law.
What all these court cases mean for the Ihedioha and Imo PDP is that, the party in Imo State has no substantive governorship candidate at the moment especially in the eyes of the law. Hence under the prevailing confusion, it would be rather difficult to consolidate or gain any ground in followership and support base. Be that as it may, Ihedioha is a force to reckon with in the Imo 2015 governorship election and his seeming ability to wangle his way through the primary election, may be a pointer to the shape of things to come in 2015.
Rochas Okorocha
With his misadventure at the APC presidential primaries, the APC ticket for the Imo governorship race is Rochas Okorocha’s only path to political relevance in Imo state. As the incumbent, Okorocha enjoys a good measure of grassroots support but is viewed with skepticism by vested interests who dictate politics and business in the state. Within the period in office, Okorocha has shown himself as being spontaneous and overtly disinclined to due process.
Long term strategic planning is not Okorocha’s strong point but he has been able to put some landmark structures in place – whether qualitative or not; people-oriented or not; purpose-driven or ego-driven; futuristic or impulsive – there are some new infrastructures in place in Imo that people can point to Okorocha’s credit.
While many would extol the governor for this, others would easily berate him for wasting scarce resources on white elephant projects that bear little or no relevance to the welfare of the people.
Okorocha is a daring politician with a heart large enough for adventure. He understands the intricacies and maneuverings of the electioneering process. A dominating personality with immense oratorical power, the easiest way to lose an election to Okorocha is to take him for granted. He masters garrison politics and ordinary people and is adept at weaving compelling political sentiments to his advantage. One of the things that would work against Okorocha is the zoning question in the state popularly referred to as the Imo Charter of Equity
In 2011, Okorocha demolished the perceived zoning arrangement in the state by emerging governor after his kinsman; Chief Achike Udenwa had served as governor for eight years. Both Okorocha and Udenwa are from the Orlu zone, while the Owerri zone is yet to get a shot at the governorship seat of Imo state since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999. With Okigwe zone also staking its claim, zoning will definitely be an issue in the April 11 poll. Though the governor has tried to dismiss zoning as fostering mediocrity, it definitely remains one of Okorocha’s major under belly in the coming election.
Whatever the case, Rochas Okorocha is in the 2015 Imo governorship race with all the advantages of incumbency, and unseat him will be no tea-party. It will take immense effort in strategic planning, coordinated sensitization of communities and mobilization of qualitative human and material resources to oust him. The Ogboko-born politician would be running to win, though against massive odds.
Emmanuel Ihenacho
Captain Emmanuel Ihenacho worked himself into the hearts of Imo people during his brief stint in the federal cabinet as Interior Minister. The shipping magnate did not miss the opportunity provided by his appointment as minister to brand himself as a champion of middle class and working people. Ihenacho like none other before him leveraged his position to employ hundreds of Imo citizens and this cannot be forgotten in a hurry. After leaving office, he sustained his empowerment programs and continued his populist outreach as a man of the people.
Ihenacho may not be a regular politician but his humanitarian approach to politics has gained him large followership in the Imo political landscape. For him, credibility and competence is everything. He maintains that Imo is so blessed with qualitative human resources to be ruled by what he described as ‘emergency governors’. The business magnate is believed to be clear-sighted on his vision and leadership trajectory for Imo. A vast majority of the Imo electorate perceive him as honest, sincere and committed to the rejuvenation of Imo as he has promised.
It is believed that in a free and fair poll, Ihenacho should be the man to beat. His major challenge however, is the fact that his party, the All Progressive Grand Alliance is deeply enmeshed in crisis. Though the Victor Umeh faction of the party insists that he is the candidate of the party, the Maxi Okwu faction is parading Senator Sylvester Anyanwu as their candidate while Chief Okey Ezeh is kicking at an Ihenacho candidature with everything he has. A divided house is the surest way to political suicide for a party like APGA especially when it is up against, more powerful parties like the PDP and APC.
