In Nigeria’s combustible political climate, where loyalty is fickle and ideology a mirage, the resurrection of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as a credible third force ahead of the 2027 general elections has injected both excitement and skepticism into the national discourse. For decades, Nigerian politics has been a two-horse race dominated by the PDP and, more recently, the APC. Yet, with the nation gasping under the weight of economic hardship, insecurity, and public distrust, the sudden emergence of the ADC-led coalition demands scrutiny. Can this newborn colossus of convenience rewire the political circuitry of Nigeria? Or is it just another Frankenstein stitched together by disillusioned political journeymen seeking new fortunes under old shadows?
Until recently, the ADC was a relic of Nigeria’s political graveyard; another name on the ballot paper, barely breathing, barely noticed. Like the Labor Party before Peter Obi’s 2022 defection, it simply existed, more a footnote than a force. But now, through an unlikely coalition of disenchanted politicians from various parties, many of whom were architects of past misgovernments, the ADC is being repackaged as the vessel for national redemption. This coalition, swelling with figures like Nasir El-Rufai, Abubakar Malami, Atiku Abubakar, and the ever-hopeful Peter Obi, has brought ADC back to the spotlight with a vengeance – and, perhaps more importantly, with visibility. The ruling APC’s panicked and clumsy response has only served to amplify this emergence. Whether out of arrogance, anxiety, or strategic missteps, its counter-narratives have, ironically, given the ADC a burst of legitimacy it scarcely could have earned alone.
Political Déjà Vu?
Observers of Nigeria’s modern political history will note the uncanny parallel to 2014, when disaffected PDP stalwarts crossed over to form the APC – a seemingly improbable alliance that nonetheless ended the PDP’s 16-year reign. It was the first peaceful transfer of power between civilian administrations in Nigeria’s history. Now, a similar script is being played out in reverse. Only this time, many of the principal actors are past their political prime – and deeply mistrusted by the electorate. This is where the skepticism kicks in.
While the ADC’s rapid reanimation is no small feat – drawing prominent figures from across regions and parties – its internal composition raises uncomfortable questions. The inclusion of controversial figures like El-Rufai and Malami, both synonymous with high-handed governance and legal contortions under the Buhari administration, hardly inspires confidence. Atiku Abubakar’s perennial candidacy is beginning to wear thin, while his political instincts remain stuck in an analog age.
Peter Obi, the coalition’s most bankable figure, brings credibility and youth appeal, especially among urban voters. But whether his clean image can sanitize the reputations of his bedfellows is another matter. Coalition politics is, after all, not about individuals but collective vision; something the ADC still struggles to articulate beyond slogans of change. Moreover, many key players in the ADC are yet to resign from their original parties. This split allegiance, or political polygamy, raises fundamental questions about loyalty and seriousness. Are they truly invested in building a new platform, or merely hedging bets ahead of another round of musical chairs?
APC: A House on Fire?
Despite its public bravado, the APC has legitimate reasons to be jittery. President Bola Tinubu’s administration has been mired in public discontent, with the cost-of-living crisis, fuel subsidy removal shocks, and a crippling naira combining into a perfect storm of citizen anger.
The North West, once a solid vote bank, now simmers with resentment. The North East is unsettled by rumors of Vice President Shettima being dropped in 2027. The North Central, weary from a decade of insecurity, is out of patience. The Southeast remains estranged, and the South-South has turned mercurial, particularly with the mishandling of the Rivers State crisis. Even Lagos, the APC’s presumed stronghold, showed signs of rebellion during the last election.
In short, the ground beneath the APC is shifting, even if the party refuses to publicly acknowledge it. A party that won with only 36.61% of the vote – a minority presidency – should be alarmed by the current wave of disaffection. But instead of soul-searching, the APC appears to be relying on propaganda and dismissiveness. History warns against such hubris.
ADC’s Window, and the Storm it faces
To become a true threat in 2027, the ADC must do more than convene a coalition of the aggrieved. It must present a coherent, inclusive, and forward-looking vision. Nigerians are tired; not just of one party, but of the entire establishment. A coalition driven by vengeance, bitterness, or personal ambition will be dead on arrival. It must also survive its own contradictions. If ADC holds a credible national convention, fields a unifying presidential candidate, and avoids internal schisms, it may indeed become the electoral earthquake of 2027. Alphabetically, it may even top the ballot; a small advantage in a country where literacy and ballot design influence outcomes. But so far, what the ADC offers is more noise than nuance. And many of its frontrunners are not new faces, but seasoned politicians who have danced through every political season without offering new music.
A Warning to APC; Not a Coronation for ADC
To the APC: don’t laugh too soon. A storm may indeed be brewing. The resentment on the streets is real. Electoral upsets don’t come from airtight strategies alone; they emerge from anger, fatigue, and desperation – all of which Nigeria currently has in abundance. To the ADC: it is not enough to be the other party. You must be something. Nigerians do not need a reheated version of the old guard wearing new colors. They need clarity, leadership, and purpose. And to the Nigerian people: the 2027 elections will not just be a referendum on the APC. They will be a test of memory, discernment, and hope. If we fail to separate rage from reason, we may again wake up with a government we cannot recognize, and cannot remove for four more years. For now, the ADC is the horse many are eyeing. But whether it is fit to run; let alone win, remains to be seen. “In politics, 24 hours is a long time,” they say. For Nigeria, the next 24 months could decide the next 24 years.
