“Nigeria is no longer a potentially big market for multinationals. It is now increasingly regarded as a poor and declining economy.” Nigerian businessman who recently returned from Europe.
There’re still Nigerians with integrity — Femi, who returned N21m worth of crypto coins to owner0:01 / 1:07
West African Portland Cement, is one of the latest companies in Nigeria, whose core investors have thrown in the towel, after P&G and GSK, as well as the major International Oil Companies.
The shares were transferred from the European company to a Chinese firm at a give-away price of $1 billion. Anybody who thinks that the Chinese are keen on investment in cement production in Nigeria should think again. China produces 52% of the world’s cement and is the largest exporter.
Nigeria’s cement means nothing to them. What the Chinese have acquired for a mere $1 billion is the broad latitude to engage in searching for rare and strategic metals which might be found in Nigeria.
Lafarge will definitely be de-listed from the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Nigerian minority stakeholders will lose control over what is done.
Unilever has also announced a change of leadership. After over 20 years since a Nigerian was appointed the Managing Director, the company has appointed a Nigerian the MD/CEO – effective January 1, 2025. Mr Tobi Adeniyi, the MD-designate has my sympathies. He shares the same fate as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, PBAT – two men who have been handed the baton after a race has been irretrievably lost. Unilever is no longer the market leader it once was; when it was impossible to enter a home without finding at least two of its brands in use.
Today, most Nigerians live their lives as if the company does not exist. The global company has probably decided to hand the ill-fated company to a Nigerian before saying goodbye to a nation getting poorer every minute.
The two tables below confirm that a picture is worth a thousand words.
The Nigerian economy has ceased growing. It has been steadily collapsing – with no end in sight. Tinubu is not responsible. In fact, I strongly believe that if Tinubu and Shettima had known half of what they know now, perhaps none of them would be in Aso Rock today. Irrespective of their best efforts, at least ten years will be required to return Nigeria to the path of positive growth. Unfortunately, for them and for us, Nigerians don’t have the patience to wait ten weeks; not to talk of a decade. Things will get worse before they get better.
HOW WE GOT HERE
“Nigerians living fake good life before fuel subsidy removal – Tinubu.
Report, December 2, 2024.
The President elaborated by saying that, “As you are all aware, we took the baton of authority at a time when our economy was nose-diving as a result of heavy debts from fuel and dollar subsidies…. The subsidies were meant to support the poor and make life better for all Nigerians… Unfortunately, the good life we thought we were living was a fake one.”
Nobody can seriously dispute the assertion. However, Tinubu, in the RENEWED HOPE document had heaped lavish praise on Buhari; who handed him the baton. He even promised continuity of the policies. The recent disclosure of the largest discovery of an estate with 753 duplexes in Abuja allegedly owned by a “top brass” – who served under Buhari, is symptomatic of how top public officials set the bad example in living false lives.
A visit to any Governor’s office and house, except Fintiri of Adamawa State, would prove the point that Nigerian leaders live the fake lives the most. No American State Governor can purchase as many luxury cars as ours do and survive one month in office.
The prodigal behaviour goes down the line to the gate man. That is why corruption is so common. They want to store away enough to enable them continue the false life they enjoyed in office. Because our leaders were dissipating our resources, instead of harnessing and developing them, Nigerians got poorer. But, most leaders never cared and most of us allowed them to ruin us. Whistle-blowers and critics were ignored.
Falsehood has an expiry date. The days of reckoning are here. We now know that we are poor and getting poorer. Instead of collectively finding acceptable solution, we are at loggerheads. Unfortunately, we will only get poorer at the end of the current controversy; and it will take years before strong recovery is experienced again – even if we start working seriously now.
That is what is clear to the multinationals leaving us. They can’t see the light at the end of the dark tunnel.
WHO ELSE IS PREPARING TO GO?
“OPEC extends Nigeria’s 1.5mbpd oil quota to 2026.” –
VANGUARD, December 6, 2024.
Despite the recent insistence of the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, that Nigeria will still produce 2.06mbpd in 2025, few people will believe him – given his track record of promising what his Ministry cannot deliver.
To begin with, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, is aware of Nigeria’s condensate potentials. They took that into consideration before setting our crude oil limit.
Furthermore, global demand for crude oil is expected to start dropping steadily from next year for two cardinal reasons. One, China’s economy, the world’s largest importer of crude oil is slowing and its demand for fossil fuel is permanently in decline. Two, all the advanced countries are launching hydrogen, ethanol and even water-powered vehicles. Goodbye fossil fuel. Unlike Nigeria, Saudi has embarked on its own hydrogen project. Nigerians might have to drink our crude oil.
That is why the multinationals are leaving.
Follow me on Facebook @ J Israel Biola.
