Across the world, it is the practice of statesmen to address their fellow citizens by means of national broadcast, wherein they take stock and make visionary statements about the future direction of the country. Last Saturday’s Democracy Day address by President Muhammed Buhari was disappointing for failing to accurately capture the state of the nation. It was obvious the President wanted to paint a bright picture over an otherwise gloomy state of affairs, and in the end, wasted a golden opportunity to honestly engage with the Nigerian people, and inspire hope in the country. This need not be so. The president needs to get his act together and seriously address nagging problems facing the country, not run away from them. Or put a gloss over an appalling situation that has passed crisis point.
The President missed the opportunity to mobilize and galvanize Nigerians to a higher level of action required for the belt-tightening sacrifices that would be demanded of them to move the nation forward. Little surprise the speech was an anticlimax and the butt of jokes and cynicism by ordinary citizens. The claims of the president were so glaring that they did not reflect the prevailing conditions in the country. His diagnoses of the challenges were too simplistic and pedestrian; his proposed solutions were empty platitudes; indicative of leadership dysfunction and a pointer to the manner in which the country is run. Truly, the muddled speech underlined the profound dearth of ideas, as well as the lack of strength of character on the part of the man Nigerians elected as their President.
Buhari told Nigerians: “When you elected me as your President in 2015, you did so knowing that I will put an end to the growing insecurity, especially the insurgency in the North East, but the unintended consequences of our scattering them in the North East pushed them further in-country which is what we are now facing and dealing with. We will, by the Grace of God put an end to these challenges too. Unfortunately, like in most conflict situations, some Nigerian criminals are taking undue advantage of a difficult situation and profiteering therefrom with the misguided belief that adherence to the democratic norms handicaps this Administration from frontally and decisively tackling them. We are already addressing these obstacles and we will soon bring some of these culprits to justice.” This is laughable were it not tragic and pathetic.
Nigerians are under no illusion that the insurgency in the northeast has not been defeated, and averring the contrary is self-delusional. The sporadic attacks by insurgents, despite counter-insurgency operations of the military, is only one indication that the war is not about to end just yet. To the extent that the military has liberated occupied territories, and freed many abducted men, women and children; that doesn’t amount to forcing the insurgents to seek new hideouts in parts of the country outside the northeast. Therefore to claim, as the president did, that Boko Haram terrorists are now scattered across the whole country, is a big lie that fosters apprehension in public consciousness and unduly disparages the military and dampen the morale of soldiers on the frontlines.
Honestly, how can anyone outside a mental asylum claim that the insecurity masterminded by killer Fulani herdsmen and kidnappers for ransom in the southwest and southeast is the by-product of Boko Haram insurgents who have been forced to flee the northeast which has been reduced into a killing field? Is Buhari really saying that ISWAP which has virtually taken over from Boko Haram now operates outside northeastern Nigeria? Does anyone believe that the violence and insecurity in the southeast attributed to IPOB has any bearing with the murderous Islamist terrorists operating in the northeast? The insurgency is an ongoing war, linked to an international coalition of pseudo-Islamic war-mongers with a brutal ideology. As a result, the fight is not the military’s alone. The president should own the war; and tone down his bellicose rhetoric, so as not to give the impression that all is well.
The President admitted that he knew Nigerians were facing tough economic times aggravated by the coronavirus pandemic but he glossed over the issue citing bogus figures and rehashing failed promises. Hear him: “My vision of pulling 100 million poor Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years has been put into action and can be seen in the National Social Investment Program, a first in Africa and one of the largest in the world where over 32.6m beneficiaries are taking part. We now have a National Social register of poor and vulnerable households, identified across 708 local government areas, 8,723 wards and 86,610 communities in the 36 States and the FCT. Our conditional cash transfer program has benefited over 1.6 million poor and vulnerable households comprising more than 8 million individuals. This provides a monthly stipend of N10,000 per household. I have also recently approved the National Poverty Reduction with Growth Strategy Plan that augments existing plans to further reduce poverty in Nigeria.
Buhari, however, added that the current recession would not last. “The Economic Sustainability Plan – our rebound plan for the COVID-19 pandemic developed in 2020 is currently being executed. The plan is primarily focused on the non-oil sector, which has recorded phenomenal growth contributing over 90% to the GDP growth in Q1 2021. Though marginal we have recorded GDP growth over two quarters; Q2 2020 and Q1 2021. This is evidence of a successful execution of the ESP by the Federal Government.” To begin with, the ridiculous assertion that some imaginary government stimulus or rebound plan has recorded growth that contributed “over 90% to the GDP growth in Q1” is laughable and should attract no further comment. Besides, unless the president misspoke, one finds it hard to explain Buhari’s logic in touting GDP growth in Q-2 2020 when we are already in Q-2, 2021.
Besides, most economic analysts from international financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank forecast that Nigeria would register negative growth in 2021, and much needs to be done to lay the foundation for economic recovery post Covid-19. The economy must indeed be diversified. The current fiscal federalism model where 36 states, with the exception of Lagos, depends overwhelmingly on allocation of dwindling oil revenues from the center on a monthly basis with very little efforts at internally generating revenues is unsustainable. The president should have outlined measures to adopt true fiscal federalism that devolves powers and control over resources from the center to the states and local governments.
While lower oil prices played a significant role, the current recession could have been avoided if other economic drivers had been effectively managed especially since the rebased GDP puts the oil sector at less than a tenth of GDP. Fiscal buffers were squandered. Instead of saving for the proverbial rainy day, Nigeria not only depleted the Excess Crude Account, it actually increased its domestic debt to finance conspicuous consumption. Servicing these debts now consumes a third of government revenues. As a result, Nigeria cannot still benefit from the recent upsurge in oil prices because the economic trajectory created by low oil prices has been compounded by policy uncertainties.
Nigeria has been denied the benefits of counter-cyclical policies needed to reflate the economy as fiscal policy tools of budget and capital spending were substantially delayed. CBN policy somersaults with its numerous directives and misguided tightening monetary policy posture would further stifle productivity, especially manufacturing. While the largely overrated economic management team was essentially in denial of the economic difficulties and the rising misery indices that Nigeria was facing, the administration’s lethargic approach to economic management as well as its underwhelming economic leadership team has exacerbated the underlying economic downturn leading to the current recession.
The President regretted that no country was prepared for the devastating economic effects of Covid-19 but insisted that he is well on course to lift 100 million Nigerians out of poverty by 2025. “I will be the first to admit that in spite of our efforts and achievements which are there for all to see, there is still much more to be done and we are doing our best in the face of scarce resources and galloping population growth rate that consistently outstrips our capacity to provide jobs for our populace. Our over-all economic target of lifting 100 million Nigerians out of poverty in 10 years is our goal notwithstanding COVID-19. In the last two years we lifted 10.5 million people out of poverty – farmers, small-scale traders, artisans, market women and the like. I am very convinced that this 100 million target can be met and this informed the development of a National poverty Reduction with Growth Strategy. The specific details of this accelerated strategy will be unveiled shortly.”
The president’s speech sought to present a different reality from the current situation in the country. It is a well-known fact that Covid-19 ravaged and virtually crippled the Nigerian economy and whatever relief Buhari is talking about was undermined by corruption which pervades every sector in Nigeria and has been the bane of national development. Indeed, corruption thrives with impunity in low and high places. The corruption fighting agencies have been reduced to the notorious routine of police stations from which they were meant to be insulated by their independent existence. Those indicted for corruption walk the streets without any qualm of conscience. Indeed, some have even been honored with presidential appointments.
The other fundamental point about the president’s broadcast is the ridiculous claim that he intends to deepen the frontiers of Nigerian democracy by bequeathing free, fair and credible elections as his legacy. “When this administration decided to change our Democracy Day from 29th May to June 12th in my first tenure, it was not only to honor the sacrifices of the men and women of our country who fought for the return to democracy but also to demonstrate our commitment to satisfy the aspirations of the people and creating an environment for democracy to be an accepted way of life. As your President, I remain committed to providing an enabling environment for a free, fair and credible electoral system under my tenure. However, you need to play your part by getting involved at any level you can supporting a democratic system that works for all and not for a section or a select few and demand accountability from your elected leaders. My commitment to bequeathing a sustainable democratic culture remains resolute, my pursuit of a fair society remains unshaken and my desire to see that Nigeria remains a country for each and every one of us has never been stronger.”
For the ordinary Nigerian who is being disenfranchised and socially destabilized by the carnage harvested in election violence and ballot box snatching by political thugs aligned to the ruling APC, the assurance of the president is counter-productive. The situation at hand does not call for simplistic empty puerile platitudes. Notably, misrepresentation of reality in government is a routine, as spin doctors are employed to craft and turn them into political capital. But lies and false claims, once made, translate into nothing and rob the president of the legitimacy required to steer the ship of state. It is against this backdrop that Nigerians should appreciate the president’s Democracy Day address. It was a missed opportunity not only for self-evaluation by Mr. President, but to present anew, his future developmental roadmaps, against which he can be judged. It was high time Nigerians begin asking questions about their own affairs. An informed citizenry is an important perquisite for a healthy democratic dispensation. Such inquisitive citizens will not only compel responsible leadership by asking questions and holding their leaders accountable, it is central to the building of a truly democratic country. This is what the future of Nigeria is all about.
