Quite predictably, the election timetable released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has attracted mixed reactions from stakeholders. Speaking Thursday at the inauguration of the House constitutional review committee, INEC chairman, Prof Mahmoud Yakubu, disclosed that the 2023 presidential election will hold on February 18, 2023; urging the national assembly to judiciously expedite its review of the constitution ahead of the polls. Yakubu did not give any timeline for the national assembly or gubernatorial and state assembly elections. Expectedly, the opposition parties have denied any prior consultation regarding the schedule of the elections and are critical of the arrangement that puts the presidential election first; arguing that such a move conveys undue advantage on the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party.
Going by the timetable, it is obvious that the 2023 Presidential elections will hold first and such an arrangement indeed has embedded in it, a predictable bandwagon effect, should the ruling APC candidate win the election with a possible attendant mass apathy for subsequent down-ballot races. The timetable is also prejudicial to yet to be registered political parties wishing to contest the 2023 elections and which the constitution allows them to do so not later than a period of six months before the general elections. Above all, the timetable will heighten the tempo of politicking, backroom dealing and horse-trading while actual governance is bound to take the backstage as most public officials will be inclined towards primitive and speculative activities ahead of the elections. Of course, it would be better if service would be paramount in the minds of elected leaders as opposed to perpetual jostling for power.
Elections are great events everywhere in the world as they allow the electorate a periodic opportunity to express their rights of choosing those who will govern them and run the affairs of the nation. Otherwise stated; investing on the governing class the required consent and legitimacy in a democratic dispensation is a cardinal duty and underlines the majesty of democracy. With a history of “do-or-die” politics that has tainted the electoral process, Nigerians have justifiably become apprehensive of electoral contests as results ultimately do not reflect the will of the voters. Hence politicians and the electorate are critical of events preceding any election, as they may contain booby traps that could make or mar the processes.
Elections in Nigeria have always resembled warfare, and logistical challenges have seen elections postponed several times, raising suspicion and loss of credibility in the process by the electorate. Indeed, there is already a prevailing trend of staggered elections following the various controversial verdicts of the Supreme Court and election petition tribunals. This seems to lend credence to the argument of those in favor of staggered or inconclusive elections.
Nevertheless, the INEC timetable, staggered as it were, between the Presidential, National Assembly elections and the Gubernatorial, State Assemblies’ elections is not exactly a good plan. The timetable appears to fall into the design of the ruling APC and could raise the issues of the perceived partisanship of INEC; even at a time when the electoral umpire has acquitted itself honorably in the conduct of the recently held Edo and Ondo state gubernatorial elections. And on this note, it is worth-noting that several electoral reform panels, most notably the Uwais Panel on electoral reform have expressed a preference for a one-day election into all elective positions in the country. INEC will lose nothing by adopting such an electoral time-table and making Election Day in Nigeria, a national public holiday.
An order in which a presidential election comes first confers undue advantage on the incumbent party and could upset the outcomes in a first-past-the-post electoral system. This will occur in ways that enthrone in power, candidates with minority votes which are hardly representative of the will of the electorate. If Nigeria’s history is anything to go by, it allows ample opportunity and easy logistics for political jobbers and criminal elements to perpetrate electoral fraud. Besides, elections in Nigeria have come at a huge cost to the national coffers, and at a time of dire economic straits occasioned by the Covid-19 pandemic, a staggered electoral calendar can only exacerbate that, and increase the strain on the depleted financial resources of the country.
The best arrangement is for all elections to hold on the same day. First, it will save cost as all elections held in the past resulted in a repetition of the shortcomings of the previous exercise. Besides, it will undermine the capacity of rigging entrepreneurs to perpetrate their nefarious activities, especially through the deployment of criminal elements from one area to another in a staggered election. Furthermore, same day election will curb voter apathy that often arises from the conflicting dynamics of a staggered process.
Above all, the opportunity cost inherent in a single day election is that it allows for concentration of efforts, personnel and logistics, including security and, therefore, makes for easy monitoring. Whatever shortcomings may arise from the one-day exercise, contingency provision should be made to allow for extension of voting to the following day. Given the high stakes and the controversial nature of elections in Nigeria, it would not be out of place for the INEC chairman to rethink the timetable he just released and in the process, do himself and the electoral umpire and the Nigerian people a great deal of service by organizing all the elections on February 18, 2023.
