With serious economic, infrastructural and security challenges to contend with, Nigerians no longer expect the scandalous and profligate posturing that dominated the country’s leadership in 2018. From President Buhari’s failing health and multiple gaffes, to the worsening insecurity with killings of soldiers and civilians by Boko Haram and Fulani herdsmen, to the unprecedented defection of politicians; the democratic backsliding witnessed in Ekiti and Osun gubernatorial elections; the record debt profile of N22.37 trillion ($73.2 billion), and the cost of debt servicing that has sunk Nigeria into a perpetual debt trap. The Not-Too-Young-To-Run law, which made it possible for younger politicians to run for certain offices, including President, the fight over minimum wage and the strikes that paralyzed the education section, marked 2018 as the year that recorded one of the most brazen and daring robberies in Offa, Kwara State, where armed robbers stormed banks and carted away huge amounts of cash in different currencies. We look back at the events that defined 2018 and how they set the stage for what is to come in 2019.
1-POLITICS
Politically, 2018 was strewn with many booby traps, both literally and metaphorically. On the whole, the year saw Nigeria develop into a nation in conflict with itself, a nation living in outright contradiction to its declared development objectives. Despite the myriad of challenges, the attention of President Buhari and his ruling APC party was often consumed by vaulting ambition, pursued with intricate permutations, manipulations and maneuvering.
(a) The Presidency:Barring any major upset, the 2019 presidential election will pit incumbent President Muhammad Buhari and his vice president Yemi Osinbajo of the ruling APC party against former vice president Atiku Abubakar. Atiku contested and won the PDP presidential ticket and picked ex-Anambra governor Emmanuel Obi as his running mate. The ailing Buhari came under attack from expected and unexpected quarters, including his wife, First Lady, Aisha Buhari, who became a vocal critic of some of the activities in the presidency, to the chagrin of many. In addition to her earlier view that those who did not work for the President’s election were the ones benefiting from the administration, she claimed two unnamed individuals have hijacked the running of government, an indication that her husband was not really in control. A former Chief of Army Staff and ex-minister of Defence, Lt-Gen. Theophilus Danjuma, accused the army of colluding with Fulani herdsmen to carry out ethnic cleansing in the Middle Belt and other states and urged Nigerians to defend themselves against the aggressors. The presidency and military denied the accusation. Also, former president Olusegun Obasanjo, in a letter to Buhari, tilted: The Way Out: A Clarion Call for Coalition for Nigeria Movement, advised Buhari against contesting the 2019 elections.
While alleging that Buhari “is weak in the knowledge and understanding of the economy” and ignorant of foreign policy, OBJ urged him to stop condoning corruption among his inner circle, accusing him of “nepotic deployment bordering on clannishness and inability to bring discipline to bear on errant members of his nepotic court.” OBJ said Buhari’s “poor understanding of the dynamics of internal politics” has affected national security, thus “wittingly or unwittingly making the nation more divided” and widened the inequality gap.” OBJ also reminded Buhari that he was voted to fix the country and not engage in the blame game.” The presidency dismissed the letter and called OBJ unglamorous names. OBJ has endorsed Atiku for president. After years of prevarication, the federal government finally recognized June 12, rather than May 29, as the real Democracy Day, with effect from 2019. It was a post-humus honor for the winner of the annulled June 12, 1993 presidential election, the late Chief MKO Abiola.
(b) National Assembly:Although political defections are an integral part of Nigerian politics, the number of politicians who dumped their parties ahead of the 2019 general elections was unprecedented. In 2014, ahead of the 2015 general elections, many prominent politicians, out of personal ambitions decamped from the then ruling PDP to the now ruling APC. Senate President Bukola Saraki and House Speaker Yakubu Dogara, also returned to the PDP. Senators Rabiu Kwankwaso, Dino Melaye, Barnabas Gemade, Isa Hamman Misau, Lanre Tejuosho, Shaaba Lafiagi, Mohammed Shittu and Ubali Shittu, Rafiu Ibrahim, Suleiman Hunkuyi, Monsurat Sunmonu, Ibrahim Danbaba, Usman Nafada and Suleiman Nazif, among others crossed the carpet to the PDP. The APC welcomed PDP defectors, including former Akwa Ibom governor and ex-Senate minority leader, Godswill Akpabio.
Amid the gale of defections, a plot hatched by APC National Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole, to oust Saraki as Senate president failed because the APC lacked the requisite votes and the PDP vehemently opposed it. Also, 36 House reps left the APC to PDP, ADC and SDP respectively. These defections undermined the ruling APC’s majority in the legislative branch and strained relations with the executive which impacted governance at the center. There was no love lost when President Buhari presented the 2019 budget to the joint house of parliament and was jeered and booed by lawmakers, in an unprecedented act of political brigandage.
(c) Governors:Likewise, governors Aminu Tambuwal (Sokoto), AbdulFatah Ahmed (Kwara) and Samuel Ortom (Benue), also returned to the PDP from the APC. Attempts to impeach Ortom failed after 22 of the 30-member Benue House of Assembly backed him. Run-off gubernatorial elections in Ekiti and Osun produced fireworks and were seen as a dress rehearsal by the APC for 2019. After bitter and acrimonious campaigns, characterized by vote-buying, former Ekiti governor and ex-minister of Solid Mineral Resources, Kayode Fayemi, with the backing of the full weight of the federal government, defeated Kolapo Olusola, aka Eleka, backed by former Governor Ayo Fayose. Buoyed by its success in Ekiti, APC replicated the same tactics in Osun, in an election that followed the same pattern, as its candidate, Gboyega Oyetola beat PDP’s Ademola Adeleke in the supplementary election, amid widespread irregularities and massive fraud. The results of APC victories in Ekiti and Osun have been challenged by the PDP at the election tribunals.
(d) Youths – Go and wait for your turn
The senate, legislative and gubernatorial primaries saw a vicious, if not subtle hold-up of the electoral process whereby political godfathers and tired old men tottering on the borders of senile decay, were recycled with impunity! Despite the Not-Too-Young-To-Run Law, which made it possible for youths to run for certain offices, including President, the essence of the law appeared was lost due to the high nomination costs imposed by the two major political parties, which most of the aspiring youths could not afford; hence most of them picked the forms and tickets of other parties. To add salt to an already festering injury, the youths were told to go and “wait for their turn.”
(e) Party Primary Chaos
Obviously, the defections within the APC and PDP were mainly over personal ambitions and aspirations not principles. The gubernatorial and National Assembly primaries produced an adverse backlash, especially for the ruling APC, which used different rules for different states to pick their candidates. In the process, some governors, such as Rochas Okorocha (Imo), Abdul’aziz Yari (Zamfara) and Ibikunle Amosun (Ogun), whose anointed aspirants lost, refused to accept defeat. Okorocha’s anointed candidate- Uche Nwosu (his son-in-law) and Amosun’s handpicked “son” Adekunle Akinlade, have joined other parties to pursue their ambitions.
2 – INSECURITY
2018 was marked by the same, or even worse, insecurity that bedeviled the country in 2017 as the security situation has continued to degenerate. In 2018, it worsened with the brazen and wanton killings by Fulani herdsmen, plus kidnappings and ritual killings. The daring attacks on military installations and killings of soldiers and civilians in the Northeast made a bad situation worse. The statistics are galling. According to Christian Solidarity Worldwide (CSW) about 1,061 persons were killed by Fulani militias in the Middle Belt in the first quarter of 2018. In its survey, Amnesty International put the number of deaths across 17 states at 1, 8143. The US Council on Foreign Relations earlier put the figure of those killed since June 2015- to date at 19, 890 while between 2011 and 2018, about 54,595 lives were lost due to the activities of Boko Haram with security agents being almost as helpless as civilian victims.
Little wonder that the 2018 Global Index on Terrorism (GIT) report rated Nigeria as the third most terrorized country in the world, behind Iraq and Afghanistan. If the trend of killings persists, Nigeria would soon find itself competing in rank with war torn countries like Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan. This begs the question: when will Nigerians feel safe in their own country? It must be noted that Nigerians elected an ex-general and civil war veteran to rein in the hopeless security, not to make excuses and read copiously from the book of lamentation, as PMB has been blaming the security problems on his predecessors. Governments are changed to fix society’s problems that incumbents could not resolve.
It is alarming that Buhari is still shopping for solutions to a major problem he promised he would resolve if elected three and half years ago. The time has therefore come for Buhari to know that the reason Nigerians gave him their mandate in the last election was to superintend the security and welfare of the people which is the primary purpose of government as stated in the constitution. Beyond the howling and buck-passing, Buhari would be well advised to stop lamenting about insecurity. You cannot spend four years in office blaming your predecessors.
3-ECONOMY
The declaration of Nigeria as the “poverty capital of the world” by the World Economic Forum and the poor state of human capital development are all manifestations of very poor economic policies over the past three and half years. When the FG unveiled the 2017-2020 Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), it anticipated the economy will climb out of recession and grow in 2018. The gov’t promised to improve tax collection, by raising the luxury goods tax to 15% in 2018 from its current 5%. The goal was to increase the overall tax to GDP ratio to 15% from 6%. In agriculture, the FG promised self-sufficiency in rice by 2018 and wheat by 2019, and hopes to be a net exporter of rice, cashew, groundnuts, cassava and vegetable oil by 2020.
But in 2018, the economy faced strong headwinds with a record debt profile of N22.37 trillion ($73.2 billion) and debt servicing cost that exposes Nigeria to perpetual borrowing and a debt trap. The facts on the state of the Nigerian economy are mind-boggling. First, Nigeria’s balance of payments entered into a deficit position to the tune of about $4.5 billion in the 3rd quarter of 2018, from a surplus of $505.9 million in the 2nd quarter; according to the CBN. In the same vein, the current account balance, which was in a surplus of $4.45 billion in the 2nd quarter, ran into a deficit $3.105 billion in the 3rd quarter. These figures clearly indicate increased payments for imports relative to receipts from exports.
The CBN also indicated that earnings from crude oil and gas accounted for a whopping 94% of total export earnings with non-oil export receipts decreasing by almost 50%. This calls to question, the much celebrated “diversification” success story of the Buhari administration. The surplus earlier recorded in net current transfers also decreased by 1.2%. Other results show investment flows declined by 45% while portfolio investment inflows decreased to $1.79 billion in the 3rd quarter from $4.23 billion the previous quarter. Second, the latest National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data indicate that inflation is now trending upwards rising to 11.28%. Food inflation, which affects the masses more directly also increased to 13.30% in November 2018 from 13.28% the previous month. The urban inflation rate of 11.61% was recorded to be higher than the rural inflation figure of 10.99%, as would be expected. These are worrisome.
The situation has not been helped by the downturn in the price of crude oil with prices less than $60 per barrel while the 2019 budget bench mark for crude oil was set at $60 per barrel. Added to this is the disclosure by the Director-General of the Budget Office, Ben Akabueze, that the level of independent revenue is now embarrassingly low with institutions such as PPPRA, CBN, NPA, NIMASA, FAAN, NIPOST and NCC being the major defaulters. The FG is thus going through serious financial challenges, according to the chief executive of the Budget Office. That the 2019 budget is threatened by revenue challenges is indeed worrisome.
The other worrisome issue is the unsustainable level of public debt, which appears not to be matched by commensurate infrastructural development. A situation where over 50% of revenues are used to service debts leaves very little for developmental purposes. Though the external reserves situation has improved from the $28.5 billion inherited in 2015 to $42.92 billion, it has been matched by increased external indebtedness. It is clearly a case of digging a hole to fill another hole.
In the banking sector, Skye Bank Plc was taken over by Polaris Bank Ltd as one of the latest distressed financial institutions, under the direct intervention of the CBN and Nigerian Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), but managed by the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON). In the takeover, N786 billion soft and long-term financing at single digit interest rate was injected to keep operations ongoing and rejuvenated. Emefiele said if AMCON could not find new investors for the bank before 2024, the bank would continue to be under CBN’s management, being the major stakeholder in AMCON. Similarly, after months of speculation, Diamond Bank Plc announced merger talks with Access Bank Plc. While many believed Diamond Bank has liquidity problems and will be acquired Access Bank, Diamond Bank insisted that it was a merger and not an acquisition.
Elsewhere, Nigerian workers, under the aegis of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) declared an indefinite nationwide warning strike to demand increasing the monthly minimum wage from N18, 000 to N50, 000, but while the FG appears willing to pay N30, 000, the states insist on reducing their staff strength if they must pay. Another strike by the unions was aborted after government invited them for a meeting, which ultimately yielded nothing. The report of the joint negotiation committee is yet to be presented to the National Assembly for enactment into law for a new wage to take effect. And since it was not factored into the 2019 Appropriation Bill, the issue is likely to linger, amid fears of an impending national strike early next year.
The FG failed to deliver on its promise to increase oil production to 2.5 million bpd and make Nigeria a net exporter of refined petroleum products by 2020. This does not inspire confidence, given Nigeria’s addiction to oil imports. Beyond restoring economic activities and infrastructural investments in an economy that is comatose with double digits inflation, the priority of any economic recovery plan should put Nigerians back to work and feed the nation.
4-EDUCATION
The World Bank Human Capital Index ranked Nigeria as 152 out of 157 countries globally, which is a very sad commentary on the posture of the government on developments in health and education sectors. Nigeria has been tagged the “worst place to have a baby” as well as the country with the highest out-of-school children globally. The falling standards of education took a nosedive with strikes by academic and non-academic staff of universities, polytechnics and colleges of education. As a result, the academic calendar was altered and students sent on indefinite break. The Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) began its strike on November 5, over government’s failure to implement agreements reached with it in 2009 and 2017 and negotiations with the Federal Government to resolve the issues ended in deadlock, with ASUU urging students to brace up for a long stay at home unless government shows concern to end the stalemate. Their counterparts in the polytechnics, the Academic Staff Union of Polytechnics (ASUP), began their own strike on December 12. ASUP also said the action was a result of government’s failure to implement the 2009 and 2017 agreement it reached with the union.
The FG adopted the “keep them talking” strategy, while deceiving the public that progress was being made and that partial agreements had been reached between union and government. Labour Minister Chris Ngige, claimed the federal government was taking all necessary steps to address ASUU’s demands and issued a threat of “no work, no pay” which was later withdrawn after the lecturers warned that such a threat would only prolong the strike. Meanwhile, the National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) has issued an ultimatum to the Federal Government and ASUU to end the strike or be ready for confrontation. NANS said the strike has affected students academically and financially, threatening mass protests across the country and mobilization of 100,000 students to take to the streets in Abuja.
5-SOCIETY
The security situation in 2018 got to an alarming rate after the country was thrown into another cycle of mourning by the brutal murder of the Former Chief of Defence Staff, Air Chief Marshal Alex Badeh (rtd). The curious murder (some suspect assassination) occurred despite a retinue of security operatives that usually accompanied him. Indeed, the public psyche is badly shaken on account of these endless killings and citizens have given up on the capability of the state to protect them. It is either the security forces are being wasted by insurgents in the northeast or ordinary Nigerians, going about their daily existential activities are being mauled down by heartless gunmen across the country. The dilemma of the recurring security violations is that no one is ever brought to book on account of these heinous crimes. The country appears on auto-pilot and the time has come for Buhari to get on top of the situation and convince Nigerians that they still have a government whose primary responsibility is to protect lives and property.
Amid the gale of kidnapping for ransom and ritual killings, one of the biggest cases of crime and alleged robbery in particular occurred in April Offa, Kwara State, when armed robbers stormed banks in the town and carted away huge amounts of cash in different currencies. The robbers, led by Michael Adikwu, an ex-cop dismissed from duty for aiding armed robbers, attacked five banks in Offa, killing several policemen on duty and other civilians, including customers and staff of the banks. It took a new twist when the suspects implicated Senate President Bukola Saraki and the state government. Adikwu died in mysterious circumstances in police custody, and it has since been a ding-dong affair between the police and Saraki.
6-HEALTH
The National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA), uncovered an illegal methamphetamine laboratory in Orlu, Imo state, making it the 15th Meth lab that has been uncovered in Nigeria between 2011 and 2018. Considering the insecurity, which some experts have partly attributed to substance abuse, it is obvious that unpatriotic importers out to make money at the expense of human lives by importing banned items as Tramadol, are fueling Nigeria’s opioid crisis.
In fact, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, (UNODC), warned that opioids like Tramadol destabilizes and fuels terror in Africa. According to UNODC, it is regularly found in the pockets of suspects arrested for terrorism, including young boys and girls, preparing to commit suicide bombings. This suggests that the availability of Tramadol may be fueling insurgency in Nigeria. Apart from that, reports have revealed that in northern Nigeria and Cameroon, farmers are taking and also feeding it to their cattle while long-distance commercial drivers favor Tramadol to give them an edge on their journeys.
It is curious that the FG’s ban on syrups containing codeine as a step towards stemming the phenomenal and widespread abuse of that and many other drugs by Nigerians has not been effective. Tramadol is an opioid analgesic prescribed to treat severe pain. However, this opioid painkiller is at the heart of Nigeria’s drug problem, because it is the rave for recreational drug users. In 2018, Nigeria witnessed a Tramadol armada. On November 16, Tin-Can Island Customs Command intercepted 13 containers of Tramadol and other items with Duty Paid Value (DPV) of N3.13 billion. 10 of the 40ft containers contained tramadol, Ciprofloxacin capsules, Diclofenac Sodium tablets, Soffeathe, IV Cannula, Sidenfil Citrate tablets; despite the ban on such substances. Similarly, two containers of Tramadol were handed over to the National Agency for Food, Drugs Administration and Control (NAFDAC) while a container of Tramadol was also handed over to the National Drugs Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA).
If these quantities of Tramadol had found their way into the markets, the effect on the lives of Nigerians, particularly the youths is better imagined because of the devastating effect on health and security. The uncontrolled use of Tramadol is unhealthy and can tease its user into criminal acts. Some of the social consequences are also numerous: cultism, violence, armed robbery, lawlessness, cultural disorientation, rape, assassinations, loss of productivity and all sorts of anti-social misbehavior. Hence, the availability, use, misuse and abuse of Tramadol assumed a frightening dimension in Nigeria in 2018. As a result, it is important to have a baseline on the magnitude of Nigeria’s Tramadol problem, through evidence-based supply chain management from the source country and particularly the quantity and distribution.
7-FUEL SUBSIDY
The vexatious subsidy issue has been in the public domain particularly with the fluctuating price of crude oil in the international market and the non-functioning of the nation’s refineries, which precede the Buhari administration. Curiously, when he assumed power in 2015, Buhari raised the stakes by giving Nigerians a glimmer of hope that has been dashed that this issue will be addressed. Nigerians were even told that there was no fuel subsidy anymore until facts began to emerge that the NNPC was managing the subsidy in its own way.
In the course of the 2015 election campaign, the then opposition APC claimed the subsidy itself was a fraud and that they would “fix” the refineries in six months. Given its perception of the fraudulent nature of fuel subsidies, it did not make provisions for it in the four federal budgets it has proposed since 2016. The Buhari administration, in summary, came into power on the promise of making the oil industry more transparent. It was on the alleged corruption in the sector pre-2015, that the Jonathan administration was “taken to the cleaners” and severely criticized by civil society organizations. At that time, crude oil sold above $100 per barrel and the attempt by government to hike the price of refined premium motor spirit PMS to about N150 per litre was stiffly resisted by these civil society groups.
All hell was let loose and in making a concession, the Jonathan administration reduced the price per litre to N87 and some measure of public acceptance was procured. Now, with crude oil at about $60 per barrel, far less than the over $100 per barrel that prevailed in the previous administration, Nigerians expect that if there was a subsidy then, there would be less subsidy now. This is strengthened by the fact that the Buhari government jerked up the price of PMS from the N87 per litre it met in 2015, to the current N145 per litre. So why has the Buhari administration not resolved this issue to date? It is therefore difficult to believe that the subsidy question is still lingering with this low price of crude and the higher price of PMS.
To make matters worse, the government has been paying for “subsidies” through the NNPC and not through the national budget. This is indeed strange in this regime’s public finance. This appears to be a breach of the law of public funds appropriation. There is thus the suspected sleaze going on in the NNPC through this subsidy issue, particularly with provision for domestic fuel demand reportedly increased. With this, over N1.4 trillion is reportedly paid as subsidy by a government that campaigned on the premise that subsidy is a fraud. There are indeed more questions than answers on this issue. In order to lay this subsidy issue to rest, government may need to eliminate it completely and allow market prices to prevail, moreover, with the imminent completion of the Dangote modern local refinery.
With population projected to grow at almost 3% annually, Nigeria is set to become the third most populous country by 2050. Nigeria needs to get its acts right. If peoples’ belts are already tight in view of these stark realities, one begins to wonder what it would look like if belts are further tightened. When Nigerians head to the polls in 2019, they should at least remember that after all, despite the change the APC promised, notably in the oil sector, nothing has changed after all.
