As the country marked the second anniversary of the coming to power of the All Progressives Congress, (APC) last May 29, it is worth-noting that the high expectations and hopes of economic rebound, has turned into bitter disillusionment, even as the new administration seeks to re-appraise its priorities and implement its agenda for change. The administration patted itself on the back for doing a good job in the last two years. Quite predictably, the main opposition PDP accused the ruling party of failing to fulfil its promise to the citizens, saying it has been two year of massive non-performance and a monumental disaster. May 29 known as “Democracy Day” for the date civilian rule was restored in Nigeria in 1999 has typically been used by the government of the day to run through a checklist of its achievements. The APC was no different, pointing to successes in weakening Boko Haram jihadists in the northeast and the release, rescue or discovery of 106 of the 219 Chibok schoolgirls held by the group since 2014. Beyond the avuncular admonition, the question every Nigerian voter should answer is: are you better-off now than you were, two years ago? The answer of course will depend on who you ask the question.
The APC said the Buhari administration had kept faith with most of the party’s campaign promises, which included a resolve to fight corruption, root out Boko Haram insurgency, and revamp the economy and create employment opportunities for youths. Undoubtedly, the government has fought Boko Haram to a standstill and greatly reduced its operational capacity especially in the northeast where the Islamist terrorist group had occupied an estimated 50,000 square kilometers of Nigeria’s territory and declared a caliphate and planted their flag in the occupied areas. Today, all territory has been recaptured, including the dreaded Sambisa forest and Boko Haram leaders are on the run. The government also claims to have made significant progress in the fight against corruption and implemented several policies that were helping to revamp the economy, especially in the 24 states run by APC governors.
But the PDP described the past two years as a disaster that had brought untold hardship on Nigerians. The party dismissed APC’s assertions about performance, saying rather than making progress, it has been a period of monumental setback for Nigeria. The PDP said the APC had failed in almost every aspect of the management of the country’s affairs. PDP said contrary to APC’s claim of degrading Boko Haram, a long period of inaction that trailed Buhari’s assumption of power actually empowered Boko Haram who had been almost defeated by the Jonathan administration. The PDP accused the Buhari government of worsening the security situation in the country by failing to stop rampaging Fulani herders, who seem to enjoy the tacit support of the APC government, who have done nothing as the herdsmen have wreaked havoc on communities across the country.
In point of fairness though, the performance of the Buhari administration, mid-way into its first term has been a mixed bag, especially on the economy which remains stuck in recession. The goal of fiscal policy is to stimulate industrial growth and, ultimately, economic transformation from low-productivity agriculture and dependence on oil to high-productivity manufacturing and services. Unfortunately, very little was seen in terms of fiscal policy initiation and implementation, and the results have been disappointing, especially as CBN monetary policies have contradicted the prescriptions of economic theory for dealing with general socio-economic and political crisis. Key reforms, especially in oil and infrastructure sectors have been slow in coming. The collapse of oil prices and the activities of militants in the Niger Delta compounded the economic challenges, culminating in a recession.
According to many operators in the Organized Private Sector (OPS), the absence of an economic blueprint was one of the concerns in the early days of the administration as unclear economic policy fueled worsening inflation, while the general macroeconomic outlook such as GDP, interest rate, fiscal deficit (debt profile) and FDI remained negative with attendant consequences on business and the economy. Indeed, with various monetary policy interventions came market disruptions and attendant negative effects on the naira.
Indeed, a review of activities across sectors showed a negative profile of activities between June 2015 and May 2017. For instance, the agricultural sector recorded a 1.61% decline in growth from 4.70% in 2015 to 3.09%, followed by the industrial sector which further slipped into recession, dropping by 8.02%, while the services sector recorded sharp decline in growth by 6.24%. The aviation sector equally witnessed decline with some airlines exiting the country, while the real estate sector continue to experience high and increasing rate of vacancies for both commercial and residential real estates.
In terms of power, the average hour of electricity witnessed by consumers dropped to five hours from 13 hours, even as consumers continue to pay more for darkness. High energy cost continued to impede the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector, as capacity utilization has hovered between 40 – 45% in the last two years. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) forex policy was one of the major challenges faced by investors in the past two years. There were issues of uncertainty, exchange rate volatility and round tripping which resulted from huge differentials in the rates, multiplicity of rates, acute liquidity crises which combined to adversely affect investors’ confidence. CBN created a siege mentality by giving privileged access to its forex allocations, to the politically well-connected.
Contrary to the expectations of millions of Nigerians after the current administration took office, a general feeling of insecurity and helplessness is on the rise. From brutal kidnappings, armed robberies, ritual killings, suicide bombings in the North eastern part of the country, rampaging and murderous Fulani herdsmen, to the ugly rumors of politicians unduly hobnobbing with members of the Armed Forces in order to destabilize the nation, Nigerians are worried that they have been given the short end of the stick.
In all of this, the security forces appear to be helpless as well. The Police, especially charged with internal security virtually lie prostrate in the face of security challenges. Indeed, Nigerians no longer have the inner confidence that the State can actually protect lives and property. Added to this is the tension caused by the rising cost of living. Inflation, power failure, job losses, failing businesses, the abysmal exchange rate of the naira to other currencies, unemployment, and a feeling of despondency are among the challenges bedeviling the nation. Uncertainty about the fate of the economy and how to face the future is also a major concern.
It is indeed worrisome that as the nation marked two years of the administration, President Buhari himself was absent and there was no word on his health three weeks after he went on indefinite medical leave in London. Buhari’s health and his inability to lead has increasingly overshadows politics, especially after the presidency refused to answer questions about the president’s health. People are disenchanted with the Buhari administration because of its failure to address the basic daily problems, which confront them. After securing the first opposition victory against a sitting president in Nigerian history, Buhari and vice president Osinbajo must get their act together and deliver on their campaign promises. They have two more years to convince and win over skeptical Nigerians; or face the merciless verdict of the ballot box come 2019.
