One year after he was sworn into office, President Muhammad Buhari remains a leader of great expectations and great contradictions. Perhaps the measure of public expectations is the magnitude of the President’s own contradictions as he seems to be a man in a hurry to deliver the badly needed change he and his party promised Nigerians. As Nigerians mark the first anniversary of PMB, there are probably good reasons to celebrate, but there are just as many good reasons to deliberate on the turn of events so far to rue those 365 days. If the first peaceful democratic transition of power from one elected government to another in Nigeria’s history calls for jubilation, the parlous state of the nation marked by economic uncertainty, resulting in numerous missed opportunities, crashed hopes and unfulfilled aspirations, demands only one thing: sober reflection. One year may be too soon to measure a president or assess his administration. But Nigerians are losing patience and time is running out.
The victory of the APC after many years of PDP misrule, characterized by absolute disregard for the rule of law, large-scale violation of human rights, monumental corruption, mismanagement of the nation’s economy and decay of infrastructure, has not brought much of the desired change. If anything, the system has changed, but not the attitude. The personnel has changed, but the vices continue. Elections have held, but hardly has there been genuine popular participation without violence. One year on, PMB rouses Nigerians to be agents of the change he promised the country, but prefers to cut the deals in the backrooms. He calls Nigerians to a new direction, and then staffs his government with barons of the old status quo he scorns.
Today, a baggage of contradictions has emerged. At its birth, the so-called APC was compromised through unofficial pacts that not only threw up reluctant or unprepared leaders; those arrangements also shackled the emergent rulers to interests other than noble. Precious time necessary for governance was spent on seeking power for its own sake with the new leadership undermining the party platform that bought them into office. This trend remains a blow to the challenge of initiating and nurturing change in the country.
Despite the APC’s claim to the values of progressive and liberal democracy, the jury is still out on how the nation has practicalised its tenets in the last 12 months. As for its rewards to Nigerians, there is no doubt that this has been abysmally low. Buhari’s election ushered in a groundswell of euphoria and hope for a better Nigeria. But PMB seems not to understand the difference between campaign rhetoric and the hard reality of governance. This is a big difference as the president seeks to do big things Listen to the music of the administration. Time and time again, on the economy, on corruption, on Boko Haram and insecurity – Buhari sounds a transformative call. His words show that another Nigeria is possible. The hard slog of his first 12 months reveals just how hard it will be to get there.
With the coming of the APC, expectations of Nigerians were high. Against the background of the impunity of the past, they expected the rule of law, where all are equal before the laws of the land; against a tale of election rigging in the past, they expected that votes would count and those truly chosen by the people would emerge as leaders; against massive human rights violation, they expected the veneration of rights; against a history of assassinations even by the state, they expected to see respect for lives and dignity of man; against a background of poor social services, they expected to see working health centers, well-equipped schools, uninterrupted power supply and well-paved roads. After 12 months of the APC, these expectations have, at best, remained forlorn hopes.
Even as reliant on diminishing proceeds from crude oil as it is, the economy is further gravely undermined by bare-faced and monumental corruption at its commanding heights. The corruption-laden fuel subsidy regime was ended without any measures to mitigate the impact on the poor. Poor remains a problem and Nigerians are being forced to pay more for darkness. The country’s war against corruption has been haphazard and a pandering to agencies of global governance rather than a conscientious project. Existing anti-corruption agencies such as the EFCC are now seen as ineffectual having themselves been inexorably caught in the crime. Their efforts are selective and largely phony. Powerful interests have been challenged no doubt, but the war against corruption, nothing more than a circus before now, seems to have simply degenerated into public grandstanding.
In fairness though the president can point to some success including: an economic recovery package that bailed the States out of bankruptcy, a renewed momentum by the anti-graft agencies to fight corruption; a bold first budget though tacky, with major infrastructural projects; a transformation of Nigeria’s relations abroad, and much more. Yet the successes are outstripped by the country’s needs dictated by grim reality. The bailout package could barely pay the salaries of public workers, as states continue to struggle to pay their bills; unemployment continues to rise. The banking sector has been in crisis with the CBN dollarization of the economy and falling oil prices depleting forex and putting pressure on the naira. Buhari’s regional coalition against Boko Haram might have tightened the noose on the murderous Islamic sect, but despite his tough talk, the insurgency has not abated. Rather a new front has opened with attacks on oil installations by the so-called Niger Delta Avengers.
To a remarkable degree, Buhari is a man of the establishment who has chosen to become an establishment reformer; his predilection is for compromise. Buhari’s accomplishments in one year are impressive, yet below expectations of the chattering political class, and fail to meet the needs of the masses. Buhari is chided for trying to do too much. He is weakened by his moderation, not his boldness. Nigerians are told their disappointments come from exaggerated expectations.
With his agenda diluted by entrenched APC power brokers, the crisis that the president inherited continues; it’s only just begun. The administration is still finding its legs. The APC hasn’t adjusted to the power that they now wield. The gulf between the president’s vision and his administration’s reality continues to grow. Will that gulf be deepened by Abuja’s potent, permanent status quo – the Kingmakers, the Godfathers, the national security apparatus, exerting ever greater power, with the president’s enemies emboldened; his supporters discouraged; the public dismayed? Or will it be overcome by renewed purpose towards the change the country needs?
Ultimately, Buhari will increasingly have to choose – whether to hold to his vision and raise the stakes, or compromise his vision to cut the deal. And the millions of Nigerians who voted for him also have to choose. Whether to sit back and hope he does the right thing against the odds, growing cynical when he fails their expectations, or stand up, mobilize, and challenge the President to get on with the change he promised. The first year is just the opening scene. A Lutta continua.
