The ordinary Nigerian may not be a soldier or military strategist; but it is logical to question the innocuous claim by President Buhari that, the recent spike of suicide attacks by Boko Haram that has killed over 1000 Nigerians in the last two months alone were signs that the murderous sect was losing the battle to the Nigerian military. This kind of glib talk is laughable where it not pathetic. The president was obviously trying to put a spin on what appears to be an embarrassing and shocking inadequacy by security forces, to end the orgy of violence that has claimed over 100 lives per week since May 29 when he took office. It is reckoned that the new administration was aware of the dire security situation and the expectation was that the killing, maiming and terror would at least have been contained. This has not happened. The reality must therefore be recognized and addressed very urgently and honestly, and the President needs to do more to reassure Nigerians of their safety.
The details of the new government’s counter-insurgency strategy may not be known yet, but ahead of his recent visit to the United States, the president in an opinion article published in the Washington Post newspaper wrote that: “Already we are beginning to see a degrading of Boko Haram’s capabilities as a fighting force. In recent weeks, it appears to have shifted away from confronting the military directly to an increase in attacks on civilian areas, as we saw only last week when an elderly woman and 10-year-old girl blew themselves up at a Muslim prayer gathering in northeastern Nigeria. We should not be confused by this change, hateful as it is: It does not mean that Boko Haram is succeeding in its aims – it shows that it is losing.” Amidst the ongoing carnage, it was evident the president was less than forthcoming in his assessment of the situation. Regardless of what might have informed the president’s state of denial, false hopes are unhelpful in this dreadful matter of Boko Haram.
Nigerians read Buhari’s statements with an admixture of cynicism and genuine apprehension. The president also said the insurgency festered because the past administration did not muster enough will to tackle it, and while expressing confidence that the insurgents would be defeated, he cautioned against public expectations of quick decimation of Boko Haram. Against the failure of the new regime to provide security as a basic ingredient of national governance, the question must be asked on behalf of Nigerians: is there something in the counter-insurgency effort that Nigerians need to know and no one is saying? Obviously, this indolence explains the lack of urgency, or modicum of seriousness, to match the bravado of the insurgents, but is this attitude an affirmation of the kind of Nigeria the new president desires? Was Mr. President just expressing in the most obscene manner his helplessness? Surely, no government with the resources available to Nigeria would respond so feebly to the tenacious effrontery of a rebel group wantonly violating its territorial integrity.
Unconventional war may be new to Nigeria, but the intelligence apparatus ought to, by now, have overcome initial setbacks and become proactive in operations to stave off senseless attacks on hapless Nigerians. The increased dimension of the Boko Haram attacks and their havoc-wreaking tactics of using teenage girls as suicide bombers are too devastating to be considered as evidence of desperation as the president would want the world to believe. The toll of Boko Haram killings, bombings and kidnaps is unquantifiable. If the President can afford to put a bold face on the precarious security situation, then it is pertinent to question his willingness to frontally address the insurgency, beyond mere lip-service.
Irrespective of the state of mind of the president, a war between Nigeria and Boko Haram has been raging and the insurgents are not losing; rather they seem to be winning. Not only have people been massacred and villages sacked, territories are also being occupied and flags hoisted to establish the occupation of conquered lands. All the territory recovered by the Jonathan administration is now being threatened or has been retaken by Boko Haram in the last few weeks. This is the simplest understanding of winning. So, the president should not be deluded that he is grappling with a mop-up operation; rather the country is contending with a murderous band of religious bigots and fanatics. This, by all means, demands whatever resolve Nigeria can muster to confront it.
While the efforts of the Nigerian security forces on the frontlines are commendable, the security forces ought to assume more offensive posture in engaging the fundamentalists. The past weeks have largely seen the army only responding to the activities of the terrorists. Why would soldiers wait to be attacked before reacting? Much as the men in the trenches are doing their best in the prevailing circumstance, the ease with which the insurgents have operated is worrisome. The standing view is that Nigeria is not asserting with the necessary force, the full authority and power of the state in dealing with Boko Haram. How can the president claim the terrorists are “losing” to the army only for the insurgents to thumb their nose at government by more sustained acts of violence?
To extricate himself from this debacle of denial, the president must face the painful truth about the nation in crisis and be realistic and should stop playing the ostrich. He must be humble enough to realize that all is not well with the polity; and that leadership has a lot to do with the problem. The President must also face the shameful situation that given its resources, the government has not acted as sagaciously as a country of right thinking leaders. Above all, the president should be under no illusions that Boko Haram could be dealt with military force alone. It is just as well that Mr. President has opened the door to dialogue with Boko Haram leaders. But with all the soft and hard power available to it, the Nigerian state should not negotiate from a position of weakness. It is not done. It must not happen.
While pursuing the military option, there is need to mobilize religious leaders, particularly in the north, to explore a way out. Other non-confrontational options should not be ruled out; but the nation must never again be taken for a ride because Boko Haram is not losing the war. In any event, the group has been vigorously pursuing its grotesque campaign of human savagery and barbarism with remarkable success. The worst is already happening, and the President cannot continue to treat the unending bloodbath flippantly. Boko Haram has declared a caliphate over captured areas; hoisted its flag and instituted quasi-administrative structures to govern the territories under its control. Nothing can be more suggestive of Nigeria’s threatened disintegration than those acts. And the President should make no pretence about it. What is now required is the political dexterity and strategy to prosecute the war. In this regard, the President must rise up to his responsibility as commander-in chief.
