The intrigues, suspense and drama surrounding the election of the National Assembly leadership could qualify as a movie thriller by a master story teller. Many predictions fell flat, pundits theorized only to wonder how they read it so wrongly, though a few got it right. But the high drama finds summary in the fact that Senator Bukola Saraki, former Kwara State Governor, representing Kwara Central on the ticket of the APC, was elected Senate President by 57 of his 108 colleagues, while Yakubu Dogara, dark horse from Bauchi defeated the more-favored Femi Gbajabiamila from Lagos State to emerge House Speaker. Yet, even as he ruminates over his mischievous mirth, and gloats at his latest political conquest, the rebel inside the podium of the Red Chamber needs no reminder that a political rebellion that leads to the unmaking of the kingmaker of Southwest politics, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu comes with a high price.
As it happened in 2011 when the PDP could not get its members in the lower chamber to elect Mulikat Adeola Akande as Speaker in an election that threw up Aminu Tambuwal in a horse-trading that signaled the beginning of revolt in the party, the ruling APC failed to have its way in the choice of the legislative leadership. Reminiscent of a conspiratorial plot from Cyprian Ekwensi’s African Night’s Entertainment, and like the proverbial cunning tortoise in African fairy tales, Saraki and his group bid their time, waiting for the right moment to strike. That moment came as loyal APC Senators waited at the International Conference Centre for a scheduled address by President Buhari. The conspirators struck. They rallied to the Red Chamber; got Saraki and PDP’s Ike Ekweremadu elected President and Deputy Senate President. By the time the waiting loyalists knew of the plot and scampered to the National Assembly to abort it, it was too late. Saraki was already seated confidently in the Senate President’s seat. Meanwhile, a similar scenario was playing out in the Blue Chamber where Hon. Yakubu Dogara was elected Speaker.
Although the timing, planning, execution and outcome of the coup were impeccable, the situation could be interpreted that Buhari’s refusal to intervene in the leadership struggle and the unexpected outcome demonstrate the President’s respect for the independence of the various arms of government. Hence this is democracy in action. Saraki’s conciliatory acceptance speech praising the President for his neutrality and promising to reciprocate the President’s gesture seems to give some assurance that the Senate would not be the President’s nemesis and that the change agenda will be on course if and when it eventually takes off. Dogara’s acceptance speech also gave a similar assurance to work harmoniously with the Executive in national interest.
Saraki, a consummate dealmaker, rallied his supporters in APC, struck a deal with PDP horse traders, and forged a bipartisan coalition. Expectedly, the APC faulted the process while the PDP, basking in new-found glory was happy to play spoiler in its new opposition platform. The PDP saw an opportunity and took it. PDP support for Saraki against his newfound friends in the APC was obviously to settle political scores. With victory, Saraki now holds the ace; he is the Senate President and an APC member only in name. As things stand, the APC cannot wield the big axe as the party has virtually no leverage over him. Little surprise, after outrightly rejecting his election, the APC made a volte face and accepted the reality, given the party’s impotence and helplessness. The APC correctly read the sign of the times that any attempt to remove them risk precipitating an unfortunate legal fracas that would create an avoidable crisis that would distract the new administration. Rather, the party has decided to give Saraki the opportunity to make good his promise to reciprocate President Buhari’s neutrality in the choice of the National Assembly leadership.
It is obvious PDP Senators would rally behind Saraki, should the APC try to upstage him. As a vector of political rebellion, if push comes to shove, Saraki would be the central nexus for rebuilding the PDP and guarantee its future return to power. Worse still, emboldened by his new position, Saraki could leverage the formation of a new political party out of what will eventually be the wreckage of APC, when things begin to fall apart. In the event of Buhari appointing the three eaglets of Southwest politics – former Governors Babatunde Fashola and Kayode Fayemi and Senator Mammora into the cabinet, Saraki would happily act as the undertaker to dismantle the Asiwaju political machine in the Southwest. If Buhari decides on a one term presidency, then Saraki would effectively have put the APC beyond Tinubu’s control in 2019.
The other major consequence of the Saraki coup is the prospect of PDP revival. The internal crisis, recriminations and defections that followed the party’s electoral fiasco had made even senior PDP members to predict its collapse. Indeed democrats were beginning to worry about an APC government without any credible opposition. Ekweremadu’s deft and surprising election as Deputy Senate President could be a rallying point for PDP partisans. In Ekweremadu’s victory, Southeast law makers got their “sense of belonging”, leaving the South-south the loser in the dramatic national power play.
