Already once-postponed, the presidential election rescheduled for this Saturday, March 28, will go down in history as the most awful and odious campaign ever! That is, perhaps, how best to sum it all up. It is a measure of the degeneration of the campaign war that the spouses of the two leading candidates hit the trail; one telling the other she is not ready to feed her husband in prison, and the other replying there is no need to worry, as her husband won’t bother about that. Unfortunately, in all of these, the Nigerian people are the ultimate losers because neither incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan, nor his main challenger, Gen Muhamadu Buhari, has bothered to outline a political vision of a better Nigeria, let alone how it will be attained.
In an escalating sequence of entropic political monstrosity, the PDP and the APC have staged million-man rallies, and election propaganda has never been this vile. Between a soldier who overthrew a democratically elected government and a failed president, the result is an unacceptable perversion of democracy as two inept, even confused leaders, are foisted on a country cowered into surrender to this tragic mix of authoritarianism and kleptocracy.
By now, Nigerians, irrespective of their party, have a reasonably good idea of what the Jonathan “continuity” mantra means. It is no exaggeration to say after a hope-raising, “transformation agenda” was propounded by Jonathan; very few Nigerian lives have been transformed for the better. Since the 2011 poll, which he won with a clear mandate, Jonathan has not introduced any new governance ideas or policy framework for socio-economic development. What Nigerians have seen in the last four years is an administration that specializes in intentional mismanagement of the country’s resources and a deliberate dehumanization of the people through abuse of tax-payers’ money. That is what Jonathan has been good for.
The APC battle cry of “change” appears to sound louder than “continuity” because change as a concept, implies paradigm shift. Build up to the election, Jonathan lost the media fight which is tantamount to losing the election itself. His media aides ought to have been sacked long time ago. His achievements in office are hugely under reported, leaving keen observers to wonder whether his media officials are either incompetent or simply clueless. From the moment the slogan, “clueless president” came up; Abati and his team ought to have known that the music had changed into a war song but they turned out to be the clueless department of the presidency. They adopted Hitler’s propaganda tactics of repeating lies over and over again and hoping people will believe them. Whether “change” or “continuity” is what is best for Nigeria depends on who you ask, but it is obvious the character and personality of the two men is more important than what they say they will accomplish if elected. This is why the campaigns have focused on the candidates.
Dr. Jonathan, (PhD), prior to 1999, was a lecturer in Port Harcourt University and an environmental-protection officer. He was deputy governor to Diepreye Alamieyeseigha from 1999- 2005 until his boss was removed under corruption-related circumstances. His utter dedicated loyalty was the deciding factor for his choice as Ya’Adua’s running mate by Obasanjo in 2007. Again, his boss did not finish his tenure as he died in office. Jonathan became acting president through to his election in 2011.
General Buhari, on the other hand, is a septuagenarian grandfather who overthrew the civilian government of Shehu Shagari on December 31, 1983 and enthroned a Stone Age iron fisted brutal regime. His government was overshadowed with arrests and military decrees to rein in enemies, the height of which was the failed London kidnap of Umaru Dikko, a former transport minister in the government he overthrew. His regime’s huge appetite to arrest opponents hobbled it from the real business of governance. The ruckus surrounding his missing certificate has prompted some questions.
Buhari has vowed to tackle corruption, having led by example as Petroleum Resources Minister, State Governor, Chairman of Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF), Head of State, with no known corruption scandal. While other ex-presidents earn N23 million monthly pension, Buhari asked to be paid just N2.3 million (10%). The same cannot be said of Jonathan who lost the moral high ground to fight corruption when he pardoned his political mentor, ex-Bayelsa Governor, DSP Alamieyeseigha, under whom he served as deputy governor. For many, Buhari is just what the country needs. Instead of business as usual, let Nigerians experience accountability for a change. Buhari has also said that he would defeat Boko Haram, while Jonathan has said time without number that his government was winning the war. Patriotic Nigerians want him to win but his lackadaisical approach to national issues has prevented him moving the nation forward in any positive direction; change is necessary so the country can head towards a more purposeful direction.
From the 2011 election results, Buhari is a clear favorite. In 2011, Jonathan defeated Buhari winning 22,495,187 votes (58.89%) as against Buhari’s 12,214,853 (31.98%). Jonathan won 23 states and the Federal Capital Territory-Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Ekiti, Enugu, FCT, Imo, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers and Taraba. He also got the mandatory 25% of votes in Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Niger, Osun, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara as stipulated in section 133(b) of the 1999 constitution.
Buhari won 13 states -Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Niger, Osun, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara. He equally got 25% of the votes in Adamawa, FCT, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Plateau and Taraba. From defections and counter-defections of governors, who run the states, Jonathan (PDP) initially lost five states-Adamawa, Imo, Kano, Kwara and Rivers to Buhari (APC). But the PDP regained Adamawa, and added Ekiti (after the June 21, 2014 gubernatorial election) and Ondo (following defection of Gov. Mimiko from the Labor Party to the PDP. Buhari may win substantial votes in Rivers and Imo, which in 2011, gave Jonathan 1,381,357 and 1,817,762 votes respectively, while Buhari won a paltry 7,591 and 13,182 votes. In 2015, Buhari now has eight APC states of Edo, Imo, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Ogun, Osun and Oyo plus the 13 states that voted for him in 2011. All things being equal, Buhari and the APC are poised to win 21 states, leaving only 15 states for Jonathan and the PDP.
But all things are never equal in politics, let alone in Nigeria’s do-or-die politics. This election will be decided by who wins the battle for the soul of the Southwest. Although Jonathan may not make the kind of spread he had in 2011, the PDP believes he can still defeat Buhari. The PDP projects Jonathan will win at least 40% of Southwest states (50% in Ekiti, Ondo and Lagos) and five of the six North Central states’ (except Niger, the only state he lost in 2011). Moreover, they give him over 80% of Southeast and South-South votes; over 35% in Northeast states of Adamawa, Taraba, Gombe and at least 25% in Northwest states of Kaduna, Kano and Sokoto.
The APC dismisses this claim as misplaced optimism, saying Buhari will win over 80% of Northwest and Northeast votes; at least 60% of five Southwest states except Ekiti, where he will, however win 25%, and at least 60% in four of the six North Central States, excluding Plateau and Benue where he may rake up to 35%. They also project Buhari will secure at least 25% of South-South votes, especially in Rivers and Edo. For the Southeast, their projection is at least 50% in Imo and 25% in Ebonyi; giving him at least 24 states. These permutations suggest a very close race which requires a strong ground game and foot soldiers to turn out your base to the polls. Whoever mobilizes more ground troops and can protect his votes will win. Given that the Jonathan campaign has dwelt more on where Nigeria is, which is already well known, and less on where he wants to take the country and how, his friends and critics are united in one question: can Nigerians afford four more years of the status quo?
