As the country continues to witness political re-alignments ahead of the 2015 general election, the most recent being the defection of five G-7 governors to the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) last week, the disarray and defections are undermining the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and President Goodluck Jonathan but the political cloud which now seems to be at its thickest doesn’t seem to have given the opposition any clear, commanding electoral bragging rights. Rather, emerging indices presage a political war of attrition between the nPDP and the old APC stalwarts unfolding in many States. This scenario, which presents grave threat to the APC-nPDP merger, is worsened by the insistence by powerful forces within the nPDP that the reconciliation spearheaded by the President must be carried to its logical conclusion. This portends dire foreboding consequences for the opposition and to say Nigerians are disappointed with such a turn of events is clearly an understatement!
The G-5 defection to the APC has been a tangled tale; a combined tragedy and comedy of errors, and whether the outcome will vindicate the initial calculations of the defectors remains to be seen. The defection itself ought not to have surprised the President, who has been procrastinating over the crisis since August when the rebellion broke out at the PDP mini convention. It is obvious Mr. President was torn between the vengeful faction of the PDP led by party Chairman Bamanga Tukur, who wanted the rebel governors punished, and more tactical operatives like BoT chairman, Tony Anenih, who wanted to tie the G-7 up in tortuous negotiations about reconciliation. After months of political brick-batting, it may be that Jonathan and the PDP provoked the defections more by accident than design. Whichever way the PDP spins it, the defection is still a serious blow: perhaps more to the party than to Jonathan.
However, the defection raises fundamental questions about the extent to which the defectors will strengthen the APC. It is obvious that the defectors will certainly import their rivalries into the APC. Besides bringing along some of the political resources of governor’s office, almost all the defectors regard themselves as contenders for the APC’s presidential nomination. Resolving the question of the APC’s candidate and running mate for an election only a year away will be a very big challenge for the APC going forward. And history is not on their side. Contemporary Nigerian politics shows that coalition building is not tea party, which explains why, what obtained in the past were alliances which did not result in any consequential electoral outcomes.
In the post-independence era, there have been several attempts at forming alliances. The 1964 general elections during the First Republic saw the formation of United Progressive Grand Alliance (UPGA) comprising National Council of Nigerian Citizens, the Action Group, the Northern Progressive Front, the Kano People’s Party, Northern Elements Progressive Union, United Middle Belt Congress and the Niger Zamfara Commoners Party and the Nigeria National Alliance (NA) made up of Northern People’s Congress, Nigerian Democratic Party (NNDP), the Midwest Democratic Front, the Dynamic Party, Niger Delta Congress, the Lagos State United Front and the Republic Party.
In the Second Republic, owing largely to the domineering activities of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), four opposition parties, namely Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP) and Great Nigeria Peoples Party (GNPP) crystallized into the Progressive Parties Alliance (PPA). This was earlier preceded by the NPN/NPP alliance for parliamentary control following the disputed presidential elections of August 1979. And in 1999, the Alliance for Democracy (AD) and the All Peoples Party (APP) presented a joint ticket for the presidential contest. That marriage dissolved as soon as the election was over. All, with overriding desire to upstage the incumbents electorally, never really fused into new identities as they retained their formal party affiliations. This same process has even been parodied by some of the political parties in the current dispensation, more or less a memorandum of understanding in which some parties refused to field presidential or governorship candidates in support of other parties’ candidates.
Some of the obvious contradictions of the prevailing political environment need cataloguing. All the parties, with no exception lack internal democracy and clear-cut ideological blueprints. Of course, the parties which fused into APC were all guilty of the aforementioned pathology. It is, therefore, crucial to raise critical questions, as many Nigerians are already doing, about the real motivations for the APC-nPDP and its prospects: Is it genuinely about promoting the public good or just a desire to oust the PDP from power? Can the APC-nPDP offer alternative perspectives of politics and governance for national development? Just coalescing against the PDP is certainly not a sufficient basis of optimism. Nigerians are aware that vexatious issues such as power sharing, zoning, personality clashes and conflict of interests have always been the bane of sustainable coalition building.
The coalition becomes meaningful only if it can bring about positive change in governance. Nigerians expect a transition from elite-driven, top-down politics, characterized by systemic corruption and general underdevelopment, as has been the case under the PDP, to one where the people are the main drivers and primary stakeholders of politics, democracy and development. Nigerians expect to see a new direction from the APC-nPDP as a truly veritable alternative to the ruling PDP. They want to see the APC chart a new vision for the country and demonstrate capacity to manage conflicts, especially the vaulting ambition of some of its members. The APC-nPDP needs to unambiguously articulate its alternative conception of power and politics that accommodate higher ideals of democracy and governance. Nigerians need a clear-cut political manifesto that de-emphasizes identity politics and presents a pan-Nigerian outlook and agenda.
However, the point must be made, and with emphasis, that the parties of old had great men; truly great for their vision and sense of purpose. That illustrious tribe of icons such as Nnamdi Azikiwe, Obafemi Awolowo, Ahmadu Bello, Aminu Kano, and Abubakar Tafawa Balewa certainly does not exist now in any party. To be sure, the value of thinking was far better than prioritization of monetary gains in their time. The leadership of the new party should not pretend it has such great men in its rank. Although the G-5 defection is a boost to the fledgling APC, no less the widening of the horizon for the party, how it handles the obvious internal contradictions within its ranks and how the nPDP entrants will blend in the set-up remains intriguing. Leaders and thinkers can only emanate from a party-building process that prioritizes merit and truly democratic principles. The APC has the chance to lead the way.
In the spirit of democracy, it is imperative that the party must be governed by those principles which emphasize best policy output that can serve the interest of Nigerians. This is perhaps the best way to stand up to the ruling PDP and give Nigerians not just the alternative but even a much better route to progress and nationhood. Herein lies the challenge of the APC-nPDP alliance.
